The Braves scored five or more runs in six consecutive games from July 6-10. They hadn’t done that since April 14-20. That stretch included productive games against two tough starters, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez and Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen. The Braves got big hits from batters late in the lineup.
Finally, the Braves were scoring runs as expected. The surge ended with a shutout loss at Arizona on Thursday night. It’s possible that by the time you read this the Braves will be in another offensive funk going into the All-Star break. That’s been the norm for them since April, after all.
If so, then the Braves still can make a deep postseason run. They have a similar offensive profile as the National League teams that played in the past two World Series, the 2023 Diamondbacks and 2022 Phillies. The Braves can get by with excellent pitching and popgun offense, too.
The Braves have five hitters producing at above-average rates (I’m using the FanGraphs metric Weighted Runs Created Plus for qualified hitters as the measure). Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Jarred Kelenic and Matt Olson all have a 100 WRC+ or better and Ozzie Albies (99 WRC+) just misses the cut (all season statistics are before Friday’s games). The Braves’ lineup was much longer in 2023 (eight above average) and 2022 (eight excluding Ronald Acuna Jr., who was out for the postseason because of injury).
The Diamondbacks had five above-average hitters in their lineup last season. They won the NL pennant before losing the World Series to the Rangers. The Phillies advanced to the 2022 World Series with only three hitters with 100 WRC+ or better. Those teams showed that a deep lineup isn’t necessary to play late into October.
Advancing to the league championship series qualifies as a deep run. The Braves fell way short of that mark in the past two seasons despite their elite offense. Now maybe they can make it to the World Series despite their iffy offense, same as the 2023 D-Backs and 2022 Phillies.
What’s more, the Braves have better pitching than that Arizona team, even with Spencer Strider out for the season. They have two starters in the All-Star game, left-hander Chris Sale and right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Max Fried had a case to make it. Braves closer Raisel Iglesias leads a bullpen that’s four-deep with pitchers who strike out a lot of hitters and keep the ball in the park.
The 2023 D-Backs didn’t have all of that. They had two good starters, Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Gallen was good in the postseason; Kelly was not. D-Backs closer Paul Sewald was so-so during the season, then had eight consecutive scoreless appearances in October before the Rangers lit him up in the World Series. Reliever Kevin Ginkel didn’t allow a run in 10 postseason appearances.
The Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in three games of the NLDS while winning 4-2 twice. They won the NLCS in seven games over the Phillies with victories of 2-1 and 4-2. The D-Backs were overmatched in the World Series by the deep, powerful Rangers lineup.
The 2023 D-Backs and 2022 Phillies made the World Series with light-hitting lineups. Surely, this year’s Braves can win in October by pushing just enough runs across the plate. They’ve been doing it all season.
The Braves entered the weekend with an MLB-high 11 shutout victories. They’ve faced nine of MLB’s top 10 teams in runs scored per game. They held seven of those opponents below their season average. Five of those teams couldn’t do better than four runs per game.
It’s hard to score against the Braves. It’s also hard for the Braves to score. It’s not just that they have only five hitters generating above average WRC+. It’s also the case that just two hitters, Ozuna and Riley, have a WRC+ that’s at least 20 points above average. The Braves need others to get on the train.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Olson and Sean Murphy are the most likely to do so. Olson has compiled a career 135 WRC+, with a previous low of 119 WRC+ in a full season. Murphy’s results have steadily improved since he returned from a 49-game stint on the injured list. He’s complied a 94 WRC+ to this point after finishing with a 129 WRC+ last season and 122 WRC+ in 2022.
The Braves will have a lot more offensive oomph if Olson and Murphy start producing at their norms. The lineup length will start looking like it did the past two years if Michael Harris II finds his form once he returns from injury. Those are not outlandish scenarios. A good Braves offense is within reach.
Even if all those things don’t happen, the Braves still can make a deep October run. The Diamondbacks did it last season and the Phillies the year before. The Braves have an offensive profile like those teams. They have better pitching than the D-Backs.
Maybe that six-game outburst of runs didn’t signal a rebirth for the Braves’ offense. It’s possible that what we saw for the first 90-plus games is how it will be for the final 66 games after the break. That wouldn’t have to mean another short stay in October for the Braves. The 2023 D-Backs and 2022 Phillies know that.
