Of the NFL’s 32 teams, only four have missed the playoffs each of the past six seasons. One is Denver, which just dumped Russell Wilson. Another is Carolina, which drafted Bryce Young No. 1 in 2023. Another is the Jets, who haven’t graced postseason since 2010, if you can believe that. The fourth is based in Flowery Branch.
The Falcons have fashioned six consecutive losing seasons, which constitutes a fallow period even by this franchise’s modest standards. That’s not to say nothing has happened. Over those six seasons, they’ve employed Raheem Morris as an offensive assistant, as defensive coordinator, as interim head coach and now – after three years when he worked alongside Sean McVay in L.A. – a non-interim head coach.
Having had three No. 1 quarterbacks over the past three seasons, they have yet another – and still another on hold. No team in NFL annals had done what the Falcons did over six spring weeks, which was sign a quarterback for $180 million and then spend the draft’s No. 8 pick on his heir apparent. Is it really a succession plan if the presumed incumbent just arrived?
Peeking ahead to 2026, Kirk Cousins will carry a cap hit of $57 million; Michael Penix Jr.’s cap hit will be $6.2. Among those under contract for that long, quarterbacks then will be No. 1 and No. 7 on the team’s highest-paid list. That’s a ton of money for one position, especially since most teams – the Saints and Taysom Hill being the exception – only deploy one QB at a time.
The Falcons open camp this week as the league’s oddest duck. They haven’t been good for a while, but it would be no shock if they got really good really soon. If not for a wretched December loss in Charlotte, they might have made the playoffs, which would have meant continuing employment for Desmond Ridder as QB1 and Arthur Smith as HC. Instead the Falcons have three newcomers filling the two most important jobs.
The Falcons of A. Smith weren’t that far away. They went 7-10 with Matt Ryan, 7-10 with Marcus Mariota/Ridder, 7-10 with Ridder/Taylor Heinecke. Cousins is seen as a clear upgrade, but the stunning arrival of Penix changes dynamics that hadn’t yet settled. Cousins turns 36 next month. Penix will be 26 in 2026. How long can the two coexist?
And while we’re at it, will either lead the Falcons to Super Bowl? Over 12 professional seasons, Cousins has presided over one playoff victory. A month before the draft, Penix wasn’t certain to be taken in Round 1. At No. 8 overall, he was fourth among drafted QBs. The Falcons liked Cousins enough to draw a penalty for tampering; they liked Penix enough to flout convention.
They have a plan. Not all plans work. This plan just might. Those Round 1 skill players – Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson – keep waiting for a quarterback who can maximize resources. New coordinator Zac Robinson is the latest of bright minds to apprentice under McVay. The idea is for Cousins to make things coalesce and for Penix to watch, learn and be ready by … oh, 2026?
Potential problem: The Falcons are so offense-heavy – in a league with a hard cap, every dollar spent on one side of the ball is a dollar not spent on the other – that they might need to win every game 35-31. Then again, Morris made his reputation as a defensive coordinator. Then again, so did Mike Smith and Dan Quinn, and neither produced a top-shelf defense here.
We know from history that the Falcons can mess up anything. They could botch this. The guess is that they won’t. The guess is that they’ll go 11-6. The guess is that they’ll win the NFC South. The guess is that they’ll play for the conference title. Is that optimistic enough for you?
This is the NFL. If you’ve got a quarterback, you’ve got a chance. The Falcons believe they have a quarterback. Indeed, they believe they have two.
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