It figured to be a tough series. For the rejuvenated Braves, it was too tough. They were swept by the Dodgers, which can happen, especially out there, but what proved trebly galling was that the Braves didn’t play badly. They made no errors over the three games. They were outscored 12-8. They were outhit 23-19. They held late leads in Games 2 and 3.
Drew Smyly, who mightn’t be starting much longer, yielded five earned runs and four homers in 4-2/3 innings of Game 1. Charlie Morton and Max Fried were touched for three earned runs over 12 innings in Games 2 and 3. As Dansby Swanson said Wednesday via Zoom: “I thought we pitched the ball pretty freaking great.”
Swanson also said: “We just played a lot of playoff baseball.”
The Braves finished a road trip against tanking teams Aug. 23. They were 9-0 against Washington, Miami and Baltimore. They moved 12 games above .500. (It took them 109 games to break .500.) They pulled 5-1/2 games ahead in the National League East. We knew the next three series would be more testing. The Braves flunked. They went 2-6 against the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers. The lead over Philadelphia, which came from six runs down to beat the Nationals on Thursday afternoon, has been pared to a game and a half.
As of Thursday morning, FanGraphs assigned the Braves a 67.5 percent chance of winning the division. That’s down from 88.1 percent six days ago. It was noted in this space last week that the Braves were pulling away, which was true at that moment. It’s untrue at this moment. The NL East schedule giveth and taketh away. The Phillies have taken six straight against Arizona and Washington.
Of the Braves’ remaining games, nine – 10 if you count the completion of the suspended game with San Diego – will come against plus-.500 clubs. Of the Phillies’ remaining games, six will. This includes a three-game set at Truist Park in the regular season’s final week. This will sound weird, but the season’s biggest series could be the four-gamer in Denver over this weekend. Colorado is 18-50 on the road; it’s 43-22 at Coors Field. Among NL clubs, only the Dodgers have won more home games.
We pause here for the boilerplate Atlanta syllogism. First premise: Our teams always blow it. Second premise: The Braves are an Atlanta team. Conclusion: They’re doomed to finish second behind a Philly club that, as we speak, has been outscored over 132 games.
Where that line of reasoning collapses is in the “always.” The Braves have won the NL East three seasons running. They’re leading with a month to go, though that lead has contracted as fast as it expanded. Over 21 August games, the Braves went from third place, four games behind the division-leading Mets, to first place, eight games ahead of the third-place Mets. (Theoretically, the Mets – now five games back – could still finish first. Realistically, nah.)
Say what you will about the Braves in the postseason, but the Braves are pretty good at making the playoffs. From 2010 through 2019, they qualified for October six times, and that was with three seasons of tanking in the middle. This team’s ceiling was lowered with the loss of Ronald Acuna, though Alex Anthopoulos’ deadline acquisitions have mitigated that. These aren’t the Braves of 2019, who won 97 games. They’re not the Braves of last year, who cobbled together a rotation that propelled them to seven consecutive playoff victories and a 3-1 lead in the NL Championship Series.
Back then, the Dodgers proved too good over a seven-game series. We were just given a refresher course in the resources available to the L.A. crew. Trevor Bauer, who signed for $102 million over three seasons, hasn’t pitched since June 28 and, with both the Pasadena police and MLB investigating allegations of sexual assault, might not pitch again anytime soon. Clayton Kershaw, the finest pitcher of this generation, hasn’t worked since July 3 because of elbow soreness.
And what did the Dodgers do at the trade deadline? Added Max Scherzer, the second-best pitcher of this generation, plus the hugely gifted shortstop Trea Turner, who’s playing second base because the Dodgers have the hugely gifted Corey Seager. They lead the NL in runs scored. They lead all of baseball in ERA.
Said Braves manager Brian Snitker: “We were a hit away, a pitch away, from probably winning two out of three.” Yes, that’s what losing teams often say, which doesn’t mean it’s incorrect. The Braves hit four homers over the three games; so did the Dodgers. Difference was, Tyler Matzek, the Braves’ best reliever in 2021, had two wobbles, and Chris Martin, who has yielded earned runs in three of his past four appearances, blew the save and took the loss in Game 3.
Over five games, the Braves saw their division lead more than halved. If they get swept in Colorado while Philly beats up on Miami, they’ll be in second place come Labor Day. Call me Pollyanna, but I don’t see that happening. They’re better than Philadelphia – at hitting, at pitching, at fielding – and they’re done with the Dodgers, at least until October.
No, the Braves wouldn’t win any other division, but they need only win this one. They will.
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