ATHENS — On his way to leading Georgia to two national championships and 42 wins (out of a possible 44) in the past three seasons, coach Kirby Smart became convinced of the importance of something he calls explosive-play margin.
Essentially, Smart found in the data that the more teams can create big gains on run and pass plays while simultaneously limiting their opponents from doing likewise, the greater the chance of winning. It’s not quite solving the mystery of who built Stonehenge. But, for instance, he has said that explosive-play margin is a greater indicator in winning and losing than turnover margin, a belief that can influence the structure of practice, game-planning and play-calling.
“Having those two balance out, having explosive offense on our side of the ball and eliminating explosives from the other side, it’s just what we do at Georgia,” linebacker Jalon Walker said Tuesday.
Last season, Georgia had the highest margin of explosive plays (defined here as runs of 10-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards) of any of the 11 power-conference teams that played in a New Year’s Six bowl game – plus-71 by the data from CFB Stats. In 2022, it was plus-85. In 2021, plus-65. By comparison, the Bulldogs were tied for 46th in FBS in turnover margin at plus-.21.
So when Smart came down from the mountain Tuesday for a news conference, it seemed reasonable to query him on his assessment of the 2024 Bulldogs’ ability to create and prevent big plays.
“I’ve seen both sides of it,” he said. “It’s, one day, it’s one way, the other day, it’s the other way. It’s not been a dominant side of the ball, if that’s what you’re asking. There’ve been explosives and then there’s not been explosives.”
At this point, with the Bulldogs – announced Monday as the No. 1 team in The Associated Press preseason poll for the second consecutive August – 2 1/2 weeks away from their season opener against No. 14 Clemson in the Aflac Kickoff game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (noon Aug. 31, ABC), it certainly could be interpreted as an answer portending continued dominance for the Bulldogs. If the Bulldogs defense were not capable of stopping quarterback Carson Beck in practice, it would bode well for the offense but raise questions about the defense. And, the reverse would be similarly problematic. But if they’re both taking turns having success, that’s probably a good thing.
Granted, it’s also possible that the results mean that the offense and defense are both incapable and are merely taking turns exploiting the other’s mistakes. At this point, though, Smart’s team probably is due the benefit of the doubt on that one.
One hint offered last week by offensive coordinator Mike Bobo would additionally confirm Georgia’s offensive explosive-play potential. Bobo said that he has been urging Beck to be more aggressive in throwing the deep ball, that the Heisman Trophy candidate doesn’t have to throw long only when he can make a perfect pass.
“Give the (receiver) a chance to make a play,” Bobo said. “And he’s done a better job of that.”
On Tuesday, Smart called for particularly explosive run plays, rushing attempts that don’t merely go for 20 or 30 yards but 40 or 50.
“I think we’ve got the backs to be an explosive run team,” he said. “We’ve got the perimeter blockers to be an explosive run team, and we’ve got the offensive line to be an explosive run team.”
Smart’s optimism particularly is worth valuing considering that – and this might surprise you – he was not doling out sunshine left and right when appraising his team.
He said that “we are nowhere close to where we need to be.” The team’s first scrimmage, held Saturday, was short on enthusiasm and didn’t meet his standards. Smart was concerned particularly about the depth, saying he felt like it was the least that he has had in his tenure, now going into its ninth season. He said that it was a common assessment among his peers.
“I call it the deterioration of football,” Smart said, meaning that the number of players on his team capable of playing winning football has decreased with each passing season.
He speculated that it might have to do with the national decline in participation in high-school football or practice restrictions at that level. Remarkably, he didn’t point a finger of accusation at the transfer portal, which has become the catch-all explanation for every ill, whether it’s fewer scholarship opportunities for high-school prospects or the decline in civility in the political discourse.
Whatever the reason, if the SEC ever decides to move on from “It just means more,” the conference might want to consider “Please join us to witness the deterioration of football.”
Regardless, the balance of his comments on Tuesday would suggest that there’s a good chance that the UGA offense, at least if key pieces such as Beck, wide receiver Arian Smith, running back Trevor Etienne and guard Tate Ratledge stay healthy, will provide more than enough productive plays.
On defense, there is a temptation to assume the Bulldogs will be fine in the explosive-play minimization category. However, their 84 explosive plays allowed in 2023 was the most since 2017 (Smart’s second season, when the Bulldogs advanced to the College Football Playoff title game). Among the 12 New Year’s Six bowl teams, five allowed fewer than Georgia, which is hardly an insult, but a reflection that the 2023 Georgia defense wasn’t as world-beating as it had been in previous seasons.
Perhaps it’s worth returning to Smart’s assessment.
“It’s like every year,” he said. “I can’t sit here and tell you one side of the ball is explosive and the other side is giving ‘em all up. It’s a balance.”
The depth may not be what Smart wants, and the deterioration of football threatens our great nation. But it sounds like the preseason poll has the Bulldogs, skilled at both creating and dampening explosive plays, pegged accurately.
Credit: Curtis Compton
Credit: Curtis Compton
Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com
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