Class 2A blog: What to watch — Round 2

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GHSF Daily has put together a great capsules preview for all Class 2A Round 2 games with the same type information I’d normally include, and they’ll continue to do that as the playoffs progress so, moving forward, I’ll switch it up a little on the Thursday weekly blog post.

For the GHSF Daily Round 2 capsules for 2A, go here.

Other relavant links:

Earlier this week, Episode 13 of The Class 2A Blogcast dropped. Guests include Dave Whitaker of The Bleckley Progress (to discuss Bleckley County), Anfernee Patterson of The Atlanta Voice (South Atlanta), Richard Gerakitis of The Lovett Network (Lovett), Michael Baron of the Rome News-Tribune (Model) and Tim Towe of The Friday Night Press Box (Fannin County). Other topics include me getting owned by Xfinity and the Jake Paul-Nate Robinson fight.

In addition to the embedded player above, you can download Episode 13 on Amazon/Audible, Apple, Spotify, iHeartRadio or Spreaker. Thank you for listening and subscribing!

On Wednesday, the GHSA conducted its universal coin flip to determine home-field advantage for the quarterfinals in the event that two same-seeded teams meet next week. “Heads” prevailed, meaning the team slotted on the higher end of the bracket will get home field advantage.

Let’s take a look at the bracket.

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Credit: via GHSA.net

icon to expand image

Credit: via GHSA.net

Notable potential quarterfinals matchups where the coin toss would come into play include Callaway at Dodge County, Fitzgerald at Fannin County and South Atlanta at Jefferson County.

OK, so for Thursday blog posts moving forward, we’ll look at Maxwell’s projections and I’ll add my awful takes.

Bremen at South Atlanta -7

My awful take: This game will be at South Atlanta’s designated home field of Lakewood Stadium, under Atlanta Public Schools protocol, meaning there will be no fans. APS is the only known district in Georgia operating its stadiums at zero capacity. Listen to Episode 13 of The Class 2A Blogcast, embedded and linked above, as both Anfernee Patterson of The Atlanta Voice and Michael Baron of the Rome News-Tribune talk about what it’s like for teams to compete in a playoff game in that setting. Both Patterson (Chattooga at South Atlanta) and Baron (Model at Washington) covered games played at APS stadiums in Round 1 and talk about the surreal atmosphere. My takeaway is this — after listening to the observations of Baron and Patterson, I’ve concluded that no fans is a home field advantage for the Hornets. Patterson has covered the Hornets and APS teams all season, so he, like the APS teams he covers, are accustomed to this unique setting. Baron, who, like Model, had never experienced it, were taken aback by the dramatic difference. This is projected to be a close game and, like Patterson mentioned in the podcast, it could go either way. He thinks the Hornets get by, and I agree.

Callaway vs. Lovett -7

My awful take: The Cavaliers, who are seemingly always loaded with Power 5 talent, and who have program stability led by 16-year coach Pete Wiggins, have advanced to the semifinals the last two seasons and three of the last four, and reached the quarterfinals in the other. That means they haven’t been eliminated in the second round since 2014. They’re poised to make another deep run after spending much of this season ranked No. 1, and they won’t be playing with a false sense of invincibility after losing to Haralson County on Nov. 10, which nearly cost them the Region 5 title. Not only do they have the home-field advantage, but they’ll be well-rested as the only 2A school coming off a bye after Banks County forfeited in Round 1. Lovett has program stability as well with Muschamp also in his 16th season leading the Lions. He and Wiggins have faced off four times from 2008-11, all in the regular season, with Lovett winning the last three. But those teams from a decade ago bear no resemblance to each team’s current roster, and while both programs have excellent coaching, the Cavs have a clear edge in talent. I’ll take the Cavs.

Early Co. vs. Bleckley Co. -5

My awful take: I invited Dave Whitaker of The Bleckley Progress onto the podcast to explain how it is that the Bleckley County Royals went from being ranked No. 4 in the state to closing their regular season with two consecutive losses and becoming the No. 4 seed of Region 3. Whitaker explained that it was a combination of playing bad, and Region 3 — which nearly swept Round 1 if not for No. 3 seed Washington County narrowly losing to Jeff Davis — being one of the state’s toughest. The Royals did get an extra week’s rest before the playoffs began, perhaps catching a break when Southwest canceled due to COVID-19 protocols. Whitaker said the Royals looked fresh and reset in their Round 1 dominance of Vidalia, and I expect they’ll continue to play like the team pollsters had ranked inside the top five before their skid. I’ll take the Royals in what Maxwell’s projections considers an upset, on the road against a tough Bobcats team that’s ranked No. 6. The Bobcats have played well against lesser competition — including their 48-7 win over Putnam County in Round 1 — but their two losses on the season, which came to top-ranked Fitzgerald and No. 3 Thomasville — were by a combined 73-21.

Fannin Co. vs. Heard Co. -8

My awful take: The Rebels beat Buckhead private school powerhouse Pace Academy and its Power 5 recruits in come-from-behind fashion last week for their first playoff win in 25 years. Now they’ll face a rural perennial power in the Braves, who are just two years removed from a state title and are playing well just a year after suffering their first losing season since 2003. As I said on Tuesday, it’s tough to gage with Braves team shows up — the one that opened the season on a four-game win streak to climb to No. 6, or the one that lost three in a row and four of its last six to close the season. In Round 1, they beat a Union County team 31-28 despite being projected to win by 17. I’ll stick to what I wrote Tuesday, which is that the best version of the Braves beats the Rebels, and I’ll bet their best version shows up. However, I say that with low confidence as the Rebels are still undefeated and have been proving me wrong all season.

Fitzgerald vs. Northeast -27

My awful take: I think the Raiders are a program on the rise and, under third-year coach Jeremy Wiggins, heading in the direction of one that can make deep playoff runs for seasons to come. I just don’t think that time is now. My guess is the top-ranked, undefeated Purple Hurricane, which are playing at a championship level, live up to or exceed Maxwell’s projection.

Jefferson Co. vs. Jeff Davis -3

My awful take: These teams are evenly matched when it comes to talent and coaching but I believe postseason experience and home-field advantage — two factors working for the Warriors — will prevail. The Warriors are three-time defending Region 4 champions, have advanced in the playoffs each of the the last eight seasons counting this one, and have qualified for the postseason every year since 2002. Jeff Davis is coming off its first playoff win since 1997, though they’re in the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. So, while they do have playoff experience, the Warriors have more experience winning in the postseason. That makes a difference, IMO.

Rabun Co. vs. Model -37

My awful take: I had Rome News-Tribune sports editor Michael Baron on the podcast to discuss Model, and he noted the similarities between the Blue Devils and Haralson County. Rabun County beat Haralson County 35-7 in Round 1, and Haralson County beat Model 49-7 on Sept. 25. That would suggest to me that Haralson County is a better version of Model, and it also partly explains why Maxwell’s projections picks this to be the most lopsided of the Round 2 games in 2A. I expect the Wildcats to run away with this game, and for it to be decided early. I’ll also consider it a moral victory for the Blue Devils if they can somehow keep the game close into the second half.

Thomasville at Dodge Co. -4

My awful take: The Bulldogs spent all season preparing for tough postseason matchups like this one, playing six ranked opponents in the regular season, going 2-4 with all but one of those games being competitive. They entered last season’s playoffs with the same unassuming 6-4 record as this year’s and reached the semifinals. Dodge County has qualified for the postseason every year since 2012 but has not advanced past the second round in that span. They last reached the quarterfinals in 1999. In my stubbornness, I tend to lean toward history repeating itself until I’m proven otherwise, so I’ll roll the the Bulldogs — who I have winning the 2A championship — in this game, though I do think it will be competitive.

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