Maxwell Round Two projections

ajc.com

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Dec 4

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
92.19AAAAAAALowndes72.5%27 - 207North CobbAAAAAAA
83.31AAAAAAAMilton67.7%21 - 156ArcherAAAAAAA
81.31AAAAAAWestlake74.0%28 - 208Richmond HillAAAAAA
81.14AAAAAAAEast Coweta63.1%26 - 215ParkviewAAAAAAA
81.04AAAAAAANorcross84.4%30 - 1614RoswellAAAAAAA
79.67AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett73.2%21 - 138West ForsythAAAAAAA
78.04AAAAAAAllatoona69.9%21 - 147DaculaAAAAAA
76.51AAAAACoffee77.6%21 - 1110Starr's MillAAAAA
76.06AAAAAAAColquitt County98.9%36 - 036WaltonAAAAAAA
75.84AAAAACartersville78.3%26 - 1412St. Pius XAAAAA
75.59AAAAAAAGrayson97.1%34 - 034HarrisonAAAAAAA
75.45AAAAAACarrollton73.7%28 - 217SprayberryAAAAAA
75.43AAACedar Grove88.5%28 - 1216RockmartAAA
74.88AAAAAARome52.7%21 - 210River RidgeAAAAAA
74.03AAAAAAHughes78.5%22 - 139Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
73.36AAAAAAACollins Hill91.6%29 - 722DenmarkAAAAAAA
71.84AAAAACalhoun61.0%26 - 215Clarke CentralAAAAA
70.49AAAAMarist82.0%28 - 1414Flowery BranchAAAA
70.39AAAAAWare County92.2%32 - 1022CreeksideAAAAA
70.18A PrivateFellowship Christian74.7%27 - 189Athens AcademyA Private
70.10AAAAAALee County96.6%32 - 032BrunswickAAAAAA
66.86A PublicBrooks County69.9%27 - 207DublinA Public
66.48AAAAAABuford96.6%34 - 034CambridgeAAAAAA
66.38AAThomasville66.7%24 - 204Dodge CountyAA
65.97AAAABenedictine75.3%28 - 208CairoAAAA
65.63AAAAAJones County78.4%28 - 1711GriffinAAAAA
64.73AAAPeach County88.1%29 - 1316ThomsonAAA
64.31AAACrisp County87.2%24 - 618Richmond AcademyAAA
63.56AAAAABlessed Trinity95.8%35 - 728DecaturAAAAA
63.16AAAAJefferson96.4%30 - 030Hapeville CharterAAAA
62.82AACallaway68.6%22 - 157LovettAA
62.81A PrivateChristian Heritage69.0%27 - 207George Walton AcademyA Private
61.74AAAAAEastside69.0%21 - 147New ManchesterAAAAA
61.61AAAACedartown82.8%28 - 1414North OconeeAAAA
61.55AAEarly County59.4%27 - 225Bleckley CountyAA
60.45AAJefferson County62.0%23 - 203Jeff DavisAA
60.41AAAAAAValdosta97.4%35 - 035EvansAAAAAA
60.25AAFitzgerald95.1%33 - 627NortheastAA
60.15AAAACarver (Columbus)75.9%28 - 208BaldwinAAAA
60.13A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian55.7%20 - 173WesleyanA Private
60.12AAACarver (Atlanta)79.0%27 - 1413Cherokee BluffAAA
60.00AAAAAWarner Robins98.6%40 - 040Woodward AcademyAAAAA
59.41AAAABainbridge90.6%28 - 721IslandsAAAA
57.97AAAPierce County94.9%31 - 031Central (Macon)AAA
57.61AAFannin County75.8%28 - 208Heard CountyAA
57.29A PublicClinch County64.9%22 - 184PelhamA Public
57.02A PublicIrwin County88.0%28 - 1018Wilcox CountyA Public
56.50AAAARiverdale62.5%27 - 216Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
54.21AAAOconee County97.8%36 - 036Dawson CountyAAA
54.08AAAAppling County94.7%34 - 727Upson-LeeAAA
52.98A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian91.3%29 - 722Stratford AcademyA Private
52.67A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)73.8%22 - 148Whitefield AcademyA Private
52.51A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian95.9%37 - 1225DarlingtonA Private
52.47AAAAPerry81.3%26 - 1412LaGrangeAAAA
52.21AAAGreater Atlanta Christian96.5%35 - 629North HallAAA
51.37AABremen71.4%21 - 147South AtlantaAA
50.96A PrivateCalvary Day59.6%21 - 174First PresbyterianA Private
50.09A PublicWashington-Wilkes79.3%27 - 1413BowdonA Public
49.37A PublicCommerce86.0%28 - 1414Gordon LeeA Public
49.07A PublicMetter93.8%34 - 925Mitchell CountyA Public
47.66A PublicLincoln County55.6%21 - 201Hancock CentralA Public
46.64AARabun County97.8%37 - 037ModelAA
45.81A PrivateSavannah Christian89.2%28 - 721PacelliA Private
43.35A PublicMacon County90.2%28 - 721Warren CountyA Public
40.04GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy98.4%40 - 040Westfield SchoolGISA AAA
39.26GISA AAAFrederica Academy71.2%24 - 168Tiftarea AcademyGISA AAA
32.65GISA AAGatewood School88.1%28 - 1315Southwest Georgia AcademyGISA AA
27.78GISA AABrentwood School88.3%29 - 1316Briarwood AcademyGISA AA
24.23GISA AAPiedmont Academy69.3%22 - 148Thomas JeffersonGISA AA

About the Author

In Other News