College football delivered spectacularly last weekend, with three of the top six losing and the playoff picture becoming all-the-more open.
Top-ranked Tennessee was shellacked by Georgia on Saturday in the most-watched game this season (13.1 million viewers). No. 10 LSU stunned No. 6 Alabama with a one-point win in overtime. No. 4 Clemson was crushed by Notre Dame. It’s worth noting the home team won each of those games – while the value of home-field advantage is debated in other sports, it remains a demonstrative benefit in college football.
“The playoff has already started,” said Gary Stokan, who’s president of Peach Bowl Inc. and knowledgeable about the playoff selection process. The Peach Bowl is one of two host sites for a College Football Playoff semifinal, along with the Fiesta Bowl.
The weekend’s results produced a shakeup. Georgia vaulted back to No. 1 – it has lost one game over the past two years, so it should remain there until it loses – with Ohio State at No. 2. Michigan came in third, setting up a potential No. 2 vs. No. 3 meeting in Columbus in a couple of weeks. TCU, still unbeaten, leaped from No. 7 to No. 4.
The Volunteers dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 after losing to Georgia by two touchdowns. The committee showed faith in Tennessee, keeping it ahead of other one-loss programs, including Oregon (which also suffered its only loss against Georgia). That bodes well for the Volunteers’ chances of still making the CFP, especially seeing the committee favors Tennessee over Oregon.
Stokan noted Tennessee fans should root for Alabama, LSU and Georgia to further strengthen the Volunteers’ résumé. Tennessee has victories over the Crimson Tide (three points) and Tigers (27 points), which will be its greatest argument should the final debate reach that point.
No. 10 Clemson’s loss perhaps was the biggest one, giving further hope to several other teams including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 USC and No. 12 UCLA, along with the other top-tier teams that have one or no losses. No. 9 Alabama’s defeat almost certainly ensures the Crimson Tide will miss the CFP for only the second time.
No. 7 LSU’s victory, meanwhile, presents the fascinating circumstance of a two-loss SEC champion. If the Tigers win the West and defeat Georgia in the title game, they’ll plead that case – which would trigger another debate, assuming the Bulldogs and Volunteers each have one loss. No two-loss team has qualified for the CFP. LSU, coincidently, was the most recent two-loss champion under the BCS format.
That’s a bunch of hypotheticals that will be answered in the coming weeks. This weekend’s matchups aren’t as glamorous as last week, but the headliners include TCU at No. 18 Texas, Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 25 Washington at Oregon.
The Horned Frogs are underdogs in Austin. The Rebels, with one loss to LSU, have a small amount of hope in the SEC West. Oregon will try to bolster its résumé against ranked Washington.
With the Ducks potentially compared directly against the Volunteers, and perhaps the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game, among others, style points will matter. Oregon closes with contests against three quality opponents in Washington, No. 13 Utah and Oregon State, which just dropped out of the Top 25.
“If Oregon can beat (those three), and let’s say USC in the Pac-12 Championship (game), they can say, look, we have wins against UCLA, USC, Utah, and we’ll see if Washington stays in the Top 25, but they could have four ranked wins,” Stokan said. “Then their only loss is to the No. 1 team.”
POTENTIAL PLAYOFF MOVERS:
This week’s games that could affect the playoff race (game played Saturday unless otherwise noted):
Colorado (1-8) at No. 8 USC (8-1), 9:30 p.m. (Friday), FS1: The Trojans are one of three Pac-12 teams alive in the CFP race. With the Heisman Trophy conversation muddied by Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker’s struggles in Athens, could USC quarterback Caleb Williams make a push?
Indiana (3-6) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-0), noon, Fox: The Buckeyes disappointed Saturday despite their win over Northwestern (the howling wind played some factor). Ultimately, all that matters is wins, but a comfortable victory this weekend would be reassuring.
Missouri (4-5) at No. 5 Tennessee (8-1), noon, ESPN: The Volunteers remain firmly in the picture, especially with Alabama and Clemson going down last weekend. Tennessee’s path to the CFP would be winning out and crossing its fingers. The Volunteers have a more respectable loss to Georgia (27-13) in a true road game than Oregon’s (49-3) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but CFP chair Boo Corrigan said Tuesday that the committee didn’t factor a difference in losing margin, instead just viewing both games as blowouts.
No. 7 LSU (7-2) at Arkansas (5-4), noon, ESPN: The Tigers must defeat Arkansas and possibly Texas A&M to clinch the SEC West, depending on the Rebels’ results. After knocking off Ole Miss and Alabama, the question becomes whether the Tigers can threaten Georgia in the SEC title game, assuming they get there.
Nebraska (3-6) at No. 3 Michigan (9-0), 3:30 p.m., ABC: The Wolverines have won eight of nine games by double digits. They have two games remaining before facing Ohio State in Columbus. That includes a meeting with No. 21 Illinois next week.
No. 9 Alabama (7-2) at No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1), 3:30, CBS: Ole Miss and LSU each have one SEC loss, but the Tigers won the head-to-head matchup. Ole Miss needs to topple Alabama – not an impossible task, this season has shown – to stay alive in the SEC West.
No. 1 Georgia (9-0) at Mississippi State (6-3), 7 p.m., ESPN: Georgia should enter the SEC Championship game undefeated. Until proved otherwise, they should be the heavy title favorites after they rolled Tennessee. There doesn’t seem to be another team near Georgia’s level right now.
No. 25 Washington (7-2) at No. 6 Oregon (8-1), 7 p.m., Fox: The Ducks won again as chaos unfolded in front of them. The prospect of Oregon making the CFP – despite a 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener – is becoming increasingly possible. Quarterback Bo Nix deserves a ton of credit for his improvement. “Oregon has the most upside in that it could eventually play four ranked teams over the next four weeks,” Stokan said.
No. 4 TCU (9-0) at No. 18 Texas (6-3), 7:30 p.m., ABC: TCU attempts to remain undefeated, but the Longhorns can almost ensure the Big 12 is left out of the playoff for the third consecutive season with a victory. The Horned Frogs, despite their record and ranking, are touchdown underdogs.
“Having that Big 12 championship is going to matter immensely when it gets down to the final four,” Stokan said, referencing TCU’s need to be a conference champion, considering it has played a weaker schedule than the teams surrounding it in the CFP rankings.
No. 15 North Carolina (8-1) at Wake Forest (6-3), 7:30 p.m., ESPN2: The Tar Heels could possibly crash the party by winning out, which would require defeating the Demon Deacons, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Clemson (in the ACC title game). Quarterback Drake Maye is assembling a strong Heisman Trophy campaign. The Tar Heels are the worst-ranked team that still has a conceivable path to the CFP.
Arizona (3-6) at No. 12 UCLA (8-1), 10:30 p.m., Fox: Most Pac-12 discourse centers on USC and Oregon, but Chip Kelly’s Bruins are hanging around. A 15-point loss to Oregon might spoil the Bruins’ season. They play the hated Trojans next weekend in Pasadena.
On two underdogs:
It’s been a weirder-than-usual year in college football. Two underdog stories that shouldn’t go underappreciated are Illinois and Kansas. The Illini were upset by Michigan State last weekend, a horrible loss that ended their long-shot CFP chances, but the program has made a drastic turn for the better. The Illini are 7-2, equaling their win total across the previous two seasons combined.
Kansas, meanwhile, has shifted its attention to basketball season, but the football program kept fans entertained through the fall. The Jayhawks are 6-3, earning one more victory than their previous three collective campaigns. Their losses came in a three-game stretch against TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor. Good for the Jayhawks, who’ve proved for the first time in over a decade that Kansas football can win.
