ATHENS – Remember when everybody was talking about what a soft schedule Georgia had this season? Well, they’re not talking about that anymore.
Now the narrative is that the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs might have the toughest remaining slate of all the SEC contenders. That starts with Saturday’s game against Florida in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., CBS).
The Gators are among six conference teams that remain legitimate contenders for the 2023 SEC crown. Florida (5-2, 3-1 SEC) and Missouri (7-1, 3-1) each control their destiny, per se, in the Eastern Division with one league loss each. That’s because each gets a shot at Georgia (7-0, 4-0) over the next two weekends. A win by either team gives it the head-to-head tiebreaker.
On the other side of the conference sits Alabama (7-1, 5-0), LSU (6-2, 4-1) and Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1) with eyes firmly focused on Atlanta. Georgia gets 12th-ranked Ole Miss in Athens on Nov. 11. That will be the second of three straight Top 25 matchups, culminating with the Bulldogs’ Nov. 18th SEC finale against No. 21 Tennessee in Knoxville.
Both Georgia and Florida will be coming off byes when they meet at TIAA Bank Field on Saturday. No. 20 Missouri will be coming off a bye a when it meets the Bulldogs in Sanford Stadium on Nov. 4.
“Georgia looks much more ‘gettable’ than they have the last two years and that schedule looks more difficult than it did,” college football analyst Chris Doering said on the SEC Network this weekend. “You’ve got Missouri on the schedule, you’ve got Ole Miss, you’ve got to go to Knoxville against Tennessee. I’m not sure they can make it through that stretch unscathed.”
It’s the perfect round-robin setup for the SEC to decide an Eastern champion in the last year of divisions. There’s a similar finish in the offing on the Western side. Alabama (7-1, 5-0) and LSU (6-2, 4-1) each have bye weeks before meeting in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 4. But keep an eye on Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. They’ll be favored in every remaining game with the notable exception of their trip to Athens.
As for the annual Georgia-Florida clash, there’s a noticeable change of vibe for this year’s game. Thought of earlier in the season as just another walk-over for the Bulldogs, the sentiment has changed due to recent events. First, the Gators are playing better under second-year coach Billy Napier. Second, Georgia is now without its superstar tight end Brock Bowers.
Both factors are reflected in the betting lines coming out of Las Vegas. They opened last week with the Gators getting as many as 23.5 points from some books. Over the last week, that has sunk inside 20 points in some places, including 17 points at FanDuel and just 14.5 at Draft Kings.
The Gators arrive in Jacksonville averaging 39.5 in wins over Vanderbilt (38-14) and South Carolina (41-39) the last two weeks. That has to do mostly with quarterback Graham Mertz playing exceptionally well. Balanced by a running game that features Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson averaging a combined 130.7 yards, Mertz is completing 76.2% of his passes for 1,897 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Wideout Ricky Pearsall is an all-pruporse threat (101.7 ypg). Florida’s line has allowed 19 sacks, however.
Defensively, the Gators are fifth among SEC teams and 18th nationally while allowing 312.4 yards a game. They’re led by sophomore linebacker Shemar James (48 tackles, 5 TFLs, sack) and senior defensive end Princely Umanmielan (18 tackles, 3 sacks).
As for Georgia, the tasks of the off week were clear: Plotting how to proceed offensively without the greatest tight end of the 21st century and remembering how own the red zone defensively and refuse opponents passage via the ground. The Bulldogs are giving up 91.4 rushing yards per game.
“We say at Georgia, ‘we’re not going to let you run it in.’ Well, some teams have,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart noted last week.
Indeed. For the first time in the last three years, the Bulldogs are allowing a higher percentage of red-zone touchdowns (73.3%) than they’re scoring (62.5).
Count out Georgia at your own peril. The two-time defending national champion Bulldogs extended their streak as the nation’s top-ranked team to 19 weeks with Sunday’s release of the latest Associated Press poll. That’s the third-longest run in history.
But outside the Bulldog Nation, the desire to see them toppled is greater than ever. The next four teams on the slate would love to be the one to bring them down.
RACE TO ATLANTA
While there are mathematical possibilities beyond these six teams, the race for Atlanta and the SEC Championship boils down to these:
Eastern Division
- Georgia (7-0, 4-0): Florida (J’ville), Mizzou, Ole Miss, at Tenn., at Ga. Tech
- Mizzou (7-1, 3-1): Bye, at Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, at Arkansas
- Florida (5-2, 3-1): Georgia (J’ville), Arkansas, at LSU, at Mizzou, Fla. State
Western Division
- Alabama (7-1, 5-0): Bye, LSU, at Kentucky, Chattanooga, at Auburn
- Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): Vandy, A&M, at Georgia, ULM, at Miss. State (11/23)
- LSU (6-2, 4-1): Bye, at Bama, Florida, Ga. State, A&M
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