ATHENS – Georgia’s still in the hunt for the College Football Playoff. Just barely, though.
The CFP selection committee was not at all impressed with the Bulldogs’ 18-point road loss to Ole Miss this past Saturday. So, they dropped UGA nine spots to No. 12 as the second rankings of the 2024 playoffs were revealed on ESPN Tuesday night.
But because of the way the brackets are seeded with automatic qualifiers going to conference champions, Georgia would be the first team out in the first year of the 12-team playoff based on the current rankings.
Relative to other risings and fallings in the second reveal of the season, the Bulldogs’ drop was precipitous.
Selection committee chairman Warde Manuel was asked in the post-announcement teleconference call why Georgia was treated so harshly despite playing its third road game of the season against a top-16 opponent.
“They’ve just lacked some consistency on the offensive side,” said Manuel, who is athletics director at Michigan. “And the teams that are ahead of them, Alabama and Ole Miss, beat them in the head-to-head. So, it’s based on who won in front of them, head-to-head and everything we look at.”
Georgia, which was No. 3 last week in the first CFP rankings of the year, and No. 4 Miami each suffered upset losses last Saturday. The Hurricanes, who fell to Georgia Tech in Atlanta, dropped to No. 9.
Undefeated Oregon remained at No. 1, followed by Ohio State (9-1), Texas (8-1), Penn State (8-1) and Indiana (10-0). That gives the Big Ten four of the CFP’s top five. So much for SEC bias.
Georgia defeated the Longhorns 30-15 in Austin on Oct. 19. Ole Miss is one spot ahead of the Bulldogs at No. 11, and therefore would be in the playoff as it stands this week. The Rebels (8-2) are off this week and will close out the season at Florida and home versus Mississippi State.
BYU (9-0) and Tennessee (8-1) are next at No. 6 and 7, respectively, followed by Notre Dame (8-1) and Miami (9-1). Alabama is two spots ahead of the Bulldogs at No. 10. Georgia lost to the Crimson Tide (7-2), then ranked No. 4, on Sept. 28 in Tuscaloosa.
Ole Miss moved to 11th from No. 16 based on their dominating 28-10 win over Georgia on Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels were fined $350,000 by the SEC for their fans rushing the field and tearing down the goal posts.
Entering the 12th week of the 14-week regular season, the Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule of all FBS teams, according to ESPN’s power index.
The committee is aware of that, Manuel said, but it still comes down to wins and the “eye test.” They utilize metrics but also go by what they see on the field.
“We look at strength of schedule in every comparison that we do,” Manuel said. “We see a lot of different data points and strength of schedule is always there. But we also look at the games and see how a team is playing and see the results of the games. Strength of record is something we look at early in deliberations and compare them to others.”
Kirk Bolles of the Houston Chronicle pointed out to Manuel that Texas moved up to No. 3 despite not owning a win over a top-25 team. Conversely, the Bulldogs own that victory, as well as one over No. 20 Clemson and its two losses are to teams judged to be among the 11 best in the country as of this week. The Longhorns did beat defending national champion Michigan in Week 2 and the Wolverines were ranked in the opinion polls at the time.
“Obviously, both Georgia and Miami lost ahead of them and they won handily at Florida this week, so that’s part of how they landed at 3,” Manuel said.
Fortunately for the Bulldogs, it is impossible for these rankings to remain static. So, their status could improve dramatically with a win in their first home game in 35 days on Saturday. Georgia hosts the No. 7-ranked Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) at 7 p.m. at Sanford Stadium.
The Bulldogs opened as an 8.5-point favorite over the Vols in a matchup that is being promoted as a playoff-elimination game. There is a considerable amount of national intrigue surrounding it, as evidenced by both ESPN College GameDay and SEC Nation setting up stages on the UGA campus on Saturday.
Whether it would truly be an elimination is a matter of debate, however. In the first 10 years of the CFP rankings, there have been 13 three-loss teams that finished in the top 10 of the final rankings.
“If history repeats itself, you could see a three-loss SEC team get in,” ESPN’s resident CFP expert Heather Dinich said Tuesday. “All three-loss teams aren’t created equal; let me make that clear. If Ole Miss loses a third game, they’re done. LSU (which fell to No. 22) is gonna be at the bottom of the barrel as it is now. But Georgia, with one of the toughest schedules in the country, it could happen.”
Said Manuel: “All I can say is there’s a lot of games left to play in the season with three weeks and conference championships four weeks from now. There’s a lot of ball to be played. Every team in America is going to realize what I’m saying. The best thing that people can do is continue to win and then let everything fall as it may in terms of the rankings.”
College Football Playoff Rankings — Week 12
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Penn State
- Indiana
- BYU
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Georgia
- Boise State
- SMU
- Texas A&M
- Kansas State
- Colorado
- Washington State
- Louisville
- Clemson
- South Carolina
- LSU
- Missouri
- Army
- Tulane