The Falcons aren't going to the playoffs. Yeah, they have a mathematical/theoretical chance of making a run and winning the woeful NFC South—Football Outsiders still gives them a 20 percent chance of doing so. Four NFL teams have started 2-5 before advancing to the postseason since 1990, when the playoffs expanded to 12 teams.
But the reality is the Falcons are going nowhere without a functional offensive line or effective pass rush. The Falcons spent all offseason talking about the importance of winning the line of scrimmage but still are losing it.
No need to re-hash all of the miscalculations made by GM Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith to get them to this point. See here and here, for starters. Instead, we can just look at the four teams who rallied from a 2-5 start to make the playoffs and see why the Falcons won't.
The 2011 Broncos, 2002 Jets, 1995 Lions and 1990 Saints were talented teams who underachieved early before hitting their stride later. The 2014 Falcons are what their 2-5 record says they are: a team lacking enough quality players, particularly at key positions. There are probably no more than three teams left on their schedule that are as deficient in talent.
Those 2002 Jets had Kevin Mawae, a Pro Bowl center. They had John Abraham, a Pro Bowl defensive end. Quarterback Chad Pennington had a career year. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles was in his prime.
Everyone remembers Tim Tebow's lucky run with the 2011 Broncos. Don't forget running back Willis McGahee had his last good season and Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady anchored a good line. The defense was loaded with good players including linebacker Von Miller, defensive end Elvis Dumervil, cornerback Champ Bailey, and safety Brian Dawkins.
The 1995 Lions had running back Barry Sanders, wide receiver Herman Moore, left tackle Lomas Brown and center Kevin Glover. They had Henry Thomas and Robert Porcher on the defensive line.
The 1990 Saints were relatively nondescript on offense but the line protected quarterback Matt Walsh (New Orleans was fourth in sacks allowed per play) and helped cobble together a good-enough running game (15th in yards per attempt) with halfback Ruben Mayes and fullback Craig Heyward. On defense linebackers Pat Swilling and Vaughan Johnson were a very good duo.
All four of the teams who started 2-5 and qualified for the postseason had several players that other teams would want. Are there more than three players on the Falcons roster that good teams would definitely want as starters right now? Matt Ryan and Julio Jones fit that bill. You'd probably find takers for Desmond Trufant. That's about it.
History and math say the Falcons have a chance to rally and make the playoffs but they don't have the talent to do it.
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