Developing quarterbacks in the NFL is, to say the least, an inexact science.
Just look at the top picks in the 2016 draft. The Los Angeles Rams are prepared to sit Jared Goff to give him time to grasp the position, while the Philadelphia Eagles will play Carson Wentz if he’s healthy.
The pressure to win has forced teams to start playing rookie quarterbacks even before they are ready. And there have been some mixed results.
Last season, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota both opened the season as starters and both their head coaches were later fired.
But the job that Dirk Koetter, then the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator, did with Winston helped the Bucs to a 6-10 mark and earned him the head job.
Winston, who will open the season against the Falcons on Sunday at the Georgia Dome, started all 16 games a year ago and completed 58.1 percent of his passes. He threw for 4,042 yards, 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions and finished with an 84.2 passer rating.
“Being around the city all offseason, I think Jameis has made some strides,” said Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy, a Tampa resident. “No one was ever questioning or worrying about what he would do on the field. It was always how is he going to be in the offseason.”
Winston came to the NFL with some baggage from his turbulent days at Florida State.
“You heard about all of the things that happened in the offseason at Florida State and you heard none of that (over the offseason),” Dungy said. “Nothing, because this guy is working. The players believe in him. He’s ready to take the next step. I know his teammates are excited.”
CBS analyst Boomer Esiason believes that with Winston, the Bucs, who haven’t been to the playoffs since 2007, could have a breakthrough season.
“He had a great rookie season,” Esiason said. “He’s on track to be this year’s breakout star in the NFL. He’s got the people around him and the coaching staff around him to make that happen.”
The Bucs were 3-3 in the NFC South last year and have posted five straight losing seasons.
“I also believe that they are in a hard division, but they can get through it with four wins,” Esiason said. “If that’s the case, then the rest of it is how they can somehow get to 10 or nine (wins). If so, there’s a good chance that Tampa Bay will be one of the surprise teams to makes the playoffs.”
Dungy likes the feel around the Bucs.
“He didn’t play well in the first two exhibition games,” Dungy said. “In the (third exhibition), he played a tremendous game (16-for-25 passing for 259 yards and two touchdowns). He has the team excited and the Bucs feel like they are ready to take a step and challenge.”
Mariota played 12 games last season while the Titans went 3-9. New Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey and offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie will try to recreate the Atlanta young-quarterback magic.
Mularkey and Robiskie, along with quarterback coach Bill Musgrave, guided Matt Ryan to an 11-5 record and into the playoffs as a rookie in 2008 by relying heavily on running back Michael Turner and the rushing attack.
The expectations for Goff and Wentz are pretty low.
“There are growing pains that go with (starting rookies),” CBS analyst Bill Cowher said. “When you look at it right now, there is a lot of pressure to win. I think if you can start the season with an experienced quarterback and ease your rookie into it, that’s the ideal way of going.”
In Dallas, former Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, who was picked in the fourth-round (135th overall), is set to be the Cowboys’ starter the season.
“He has some Donovan McNabb-like qualities,” ESPN analyst Jon Gruden said. “I coached McNabb in the Senior Bowl when he was coming out of Syracuse. Similar size. Similar option football background. … I’m not shocked that he’s played this well. I am stunned, however, that he looks like the opening day starter for the Dallas Cowboys.”
New England and Houston also have experiential quarterback situations to monitor.
With Tom Brady suspended for four games for his role in Deflategate, the Patriots are expected to open the season with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. The former second-round pick out of Eastern Illinois in 2014 has played in just 11 games with no starts.
Garoppolo is being expected to hold the fort against Arizona on the road and in home games against Miami, Houston and Buffalo.
“He’s got a lot of good weapons,” Cowher said. “They’ll lean heavily on the running game, the play-action game and their defense.”
In Houston, the Texans hitched their wagon to former Denver quarterback Brock Osweiler, who parlayed a 5-2 record into a $72 million free-agent contract.
Detroit tried this approach back in 1994, when the Lions showered cash on Scott Mitchell, who had posted a 3-4 record as a fill-in starter in Miami. He went 27-30 for the Lions over five uneventful seasons.
“I don’t necessarily know that there is a player at this position in the league that will be under as much scrutiny as Brock Osweiler,” Esiason said.
Simms watched Osweiler closely when he was filling in for Peyton Manning last season during Denver’s Super Bowl title run.
“When he was in there, he withstood some tremendous hits,” Simms said. “Sometimes he would get just blown up right off the screen. He can take the pressure and definitely has the courage to do it. He was absolutely tremendous with the Broncos last year.”
Clearly, there is no one way to develop quarterbacks, which makes Winston a player to watch.
“It’s an incredible league right now, the way that it churns out new talent at quarterback, offensive coordinator and head coach,” Gruden said. “You don’t get very long to establish yourself.”
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