It’s not that Alabama is invincible. It does lose, though not often and not lately. (Last loss: Sept. 19, 2015.) But superb teams can and do lose.
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are the best in the business. They have eight national titles between them. Of those eight, only Alabama in 2009 finished unbeaten. The great Florida team of 2008 with Tim Tebow? Lost at home to Ole Miss. The mighty Alabama assemblage of 2012 that beat Georgia in the epic SEC Championship game and obliterated Notre Dame 42-14? Lost at home to Texas A&M.
Washington will enter Saturday’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl as a two-touchdown underdog. That’s less a reflection of the Huskies’ worth than yet another example of the Alabama Aura. The contemporary Crimson Tide tower over their sport in a way that few teams — possibly Notre Dame under Knute Rockne, probably Oklahoma under Bud Wilkinson — ever have. We never expect them to lose, even though they sometimes do.
On the day Texas before faced USC in the Rose Bowl of January 2006, a guy from Atlanta (blush) asked Mack Brown how it felt to have a team so good — the Longhorns were unbeaten, just like the Trojans — that was being given no chance to win. Brown said he wasn’t aware of such short-shrifting, though he surely was. His team won 41-38.
These Huskies aren’t as good as those Longhorns. Let’s be clear about that. But they have a chance in this semifinal, and more than the hackneyed puncher’s chance. They rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring offense and scoring defense this season. They are fourth in total offense, first in total defense. Saban called Washington the most complete team Alabama has faced, and that’s absolutely true. USC, which Bama destroyed in the season opener, wasn’t ready. The SEC was overrun with one-dimensional teams, flawed teams, overblown teams. (Crimson Tide excepted.)
Nobody can beat Bama on talent. Only Clemson and Ohio State, who’ll wage the other semi in Glendale, Ariz., can come close. But Washington has enough skilled players — good quarterback, swift receivers — to keep the Tide from hogging the ball, and if the Huskies can seize an early lead, the game will change.
Alabama rallied from 24-3 down to win in Oxford, but that was in September against a team that would subsequently collapse. This is against a sound opponent with a coach – Chris Petersen, formerly of Boise State – who has made his reputation by building solid teams that can throw a trick or two at a vaunted opponent.
If the Tide has even a sliver of a weakness — and this is a reach, given that Jalen Hurts was named the SEC’s offensive player of the year — it’s that their quarterback is a freshman. If Alabama scores two quick touchdowns, Hurts mightn’t have to throw the ball much. If Washington catches a flying start, the pressure on the favorite and especially its quarterback will intensify. And this isn’t just a September game at Ole Miss. Lose the semi and there’ll be no final.
But here’s the catch: As much as the game’s dynamics might give heart to the underdog Huskies, the greatest dynamic in college football and maybe the history of college football is Saban. He’s 7-1 in SEC Championship games, 6-1 in BCS title or College Football Playoff games. (Both losses were against Meyer.) That’s an .866 winning percentage — at two different schools, mind you — at the highest level of football. That’s outrageous bordering on obscene.
It helps that Saban almost always has had the better players, but even the greatest talent — we think of Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, each with a Heisman Trophy, against Texas — can be outflanked on a given night. Saban’s Alabama can be staggered: Georgia led the 2012 SEC title game, a de facto BCS semifinal, 21-10 after Alec Ogletree returned a blocked field-goal attempt for a touchdown; Clemson, with Deshaun Watson shredding Kirby Smart’s defense, led with 10 1/2 minutes remaining in January’s CFP final. Almost never do the Tide fall, mostly because their coach won’t allow it.
It was Saban demanded that the Tide, trailing by double figures in the second half, start pounding the ball at Georgia. It was Saban who ordered the onside kick after the tying field goal to keep the ball from Watson. Unless Meyer is on the other sideline, it’s always Saban who thinks of something.
Asked Friday about his hope for this semifinal, Saban said: “You want the team to play best. Can we play to our standard?” That invariably happens in games like this, which means Alabama invariably wins. In the heady moment after Ogletree’s scoop/score, Mark Richt allowed himself to think: “We’re going to win this thing.” But no.
This will be closer than you’d think. I might well pick Washington were it playing somebody else. But it isn’t. It’s playing Saban’s team. Alabama 24, Washington 20.
