This already has been a strange offseason. Coach Sean Payton defied the odds by saying he would return to New Orleans, Indianapolis defied the odds by keeping coach Chuck Pagano and Cleveland merely defied the odds by hiring a baseball analytics guy, Paul DePodesta, as its new “Chief Strategy officer.” (Look for the Browns to load up on low-salaried infielders with a high-on base percentage.)
Tampa Bay also fired its head coach, Lovie Smith, by telephone and announced it at 10:21 p.m. Maybe the Falcons can provided their update on the status of Thomas Dimitroff and Kyle Shanahan at 10:30 p.m. But no hurry, guys.
The off-field silliness gives ways to the postseason this weekend. Here’s my ranking of the field, in reverse order:
12. Houston: The Texans went 2-5 in the first seven games but 7-2 in the final nine. Only one of those wins came over a playoff team (10-6 over Cincinnati after the Bengals started 8-0). Houston's defense is good, but I'm not buying stock in a team that mostly feasted on Tennessee and Jacksonville and starts Brian Hoyer at quarterback.
11. Washington: The team is going to hand out "You Like That?!" towels to fans, spinning off quarterback Kirk Cousins' postgame rant earlier this season. Cute. Cousins has been amazing in the past 10 games: 72.4 percent passing, 23 touchdowns, three interceptions. But you know the love is a bit over the top when members of the Washington media actually are posing the question: "Who would you rather have in the next five years: Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers?" Really? I'll take Rodgers. You like that?!
10. Cincinnati: Does any NFL team tease the masses more in September and October, only to face-plant when it really matters? The Bengals played four playoff teams in the second half. They lost to all of them (Houston, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Denver). Coach Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game. I repeat: Never. He is 0-6 in 13 years. He's still employed. I need his agent. The Bengals' last playoff win: 1990. The Steelers will roll 'em again.
9. Minnesota: The current forecast for Minneapolis on Sunday is a high of 4 degrees and a low of minus-3, or minus-712 with the wind-chill factor. A band of tuba-playing musk oxen will perform at halftime. Minnesota is just good enough to be interesting, with a young and developing quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) and a great running back (Adrian Peterson) who has managed to go the entire year without being indicted. But I foresee problems against Seattle.
8. Kansas City: The Chiefs are the anti-Falcons. They followed a five-game losing streak with 10 consecutive wins. Andy Reid rocks. Kansas City is one of only three teams with a defense that allowed less than 18 points per game and finished with a turnover differential of plus-14 (second in the league to Carolina). But the wild-card game against the Texans could be a snoozeville.
7. Green Bay: The Packers were another example of this strange NFL season, winning their first six games (Aaron Rodgers: 15 touchdowns, two interceptions) but then going 4-6 (Rodgers: 16 TDs, six INTs). Rodgers has been battered all season and was sacked 46 times. But I think he has at least one playoff win in him. Maybe two.
6. Pittsburgh: As with Adrian Peterson, we can question where Ben Roethlisberger fits on the human evolutionary chart, but there's no doubting his football ability. Pittsburgh's defense improved this season, but still strangely is more dependent on its offense. Roethlisberger finds ways to win. Antonio Brown led the NFL in receiving. The Steelers are a dangerous No. 6 seed. But …
5. Seattle: The Seahawks are an even more dangerous No. 6 seed. They've lost tight end Jimmy Graham (knee) and nobody knows what running back Marshawn Lynch (abdominal injury) can give them. But they have Russell Wilson, a defense and playoff experience. That should get them through at least the Minnesota game.
4. Denver: Ready for Peyton Manning's last hurrah? I don't know what he has left, but the Broncos made the right decision to start him over Brock Osweiler in the postseason. The bad: Manning (9 TDs, 17 INTs) was awful in nine starts before he was shelved, and Denver had the most turnovers (31) of any playoff team. The good: defense, including a league-best 52 sacks.
3. Arizona: Carson Palmer is doing things at the age of 36 (35 TDs, 11 INTs, 8.7 yards per attempt) that he had never done. But getting stomped at home in the final week by Seattle 36-6 didn't exactly strengthen expectations of a long playoff run. The first playoff game (against Green Bay, by my projection) could be interesting.
2. Carolina: Cam Newton and the Panthers may be cocky and obnoxious, but they're also pretty damn good. They led the NFL in point differential (plus-192), points for (500), turnover differential (plus-20) and almost everything that matters. With home field, I don't see them losing. But a divisional matchup against Seattle would be interesting.
1. New England: I'm not giving much weight to the late-season losses. New England will face Carolina in an Old School-New School Super Bowl and win their second consecutive title and fifth overall for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. I know: Boring. And we don't have DeflateGate to lampoon them with. But it says here: Patriots win.
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