The Falcons are not one of the four teams playing Sunday for a conference championship and Super Bowl berth. Nor did they come close.
This is when coaches, general managers and certainly fans ask the same question: “What do they have that we don’t have?”
Glad you asked:
Carolina: Interior of the offensive line
The football analytics site Pro Football Focus ranked the Falcons' offensive line fourth best in the NFL. I'm still trying to figure out that math, given the team averaged 3.82 yards per carry (sixth lowest in NFL) and Matt Ryan was sacked 30 times (15th most among quarterbacks).
The Falcons are solid on the outside with tackles Jake Matthews and Ryan Schaeder (a surprise as an undrafted free agent from Valdosta State). What they don't have is quality inside, as Carolina does with center Ryan Kalil and guards Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner. Kalil and Turner were named to the Pro Bowl. The Panthers can dominate with their power running game, something Falcons coach Dan Quinn watched Seattle do in his years there. It's not all Cam Newton.
You seldom see the Panthers’ line collapse in the middle. Know what else you don’t see in Carolina? The series of bad snaps and fumblepalooza committed this season by Mike Person (4 fumbles) and James Stone (1) of the Falcons. Check with Ryan for verification.
Arizona: A shutdown secondary
The Falcons have a great cornerback in Desmond Trufant and a pretty good safety in Kemal Ishmael. But two solid players don’t get it done in today’s pass-happy NFL. The Cardinals are so good in the secondary that they frequently play “dime” coverage (six defensive backs, one linebacker with four linemen).
Arizona has one of the NFL’s better defenses despite having a relatively pedestrian pass rush (20th with 36 sacks; fifth ranked in total defense). Safety Tyrann Mathieu, a great player at LSU despite substance-abuse issues, has overcome his problems and become one of the NFL’s best defensive players. His torn ACL late in the season weakened the Cardinals’ coverage of opposing slot receivers, where Mathieu had all five of his interceptions, but the defense has held up because of secondary depth. It helps to also have cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Rashad Johnson.
The Falcons need help on the back end of their defense. Robert Alford, the more picked-on cornerback of the two, played well at times but was torched at others. Safety is a major issue with William Moore having slowed down and an inability to stay healthy. And without a pass rush, the problems are exposed. And speaking of pass rush …
Denver: Pass rush/edge rusher
Not only do the Falcons not have anybody who can get to the quarterback on the level of Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (11 sacks this season, 25 in the past two), their anemic pass rush set a standard for futility. The 19 sacks was a franchise low for a 16-game season since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, and ranked last in the NFL. The Broncos ranked first with 52 — so they nearly tripled the Falcons’ sack total. They had five players — Miller (11), DeMarcus Ware (7.5), Derek Wolfe (5.5), Shaquil Barrett (5.5), Maliq Jackson (5) — with more sacks than Falcons leader Vic Beasley (four).
Miller, Barrett and Ware also accounted for nine of Denver’s 22 forced fumbles. The Broncos don’t have to be great on the back end because they creates so much pressure up front. That said, Denver’s secondary also is very good, led by Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. As Peyton Manning said upon accepting congratulations following last week’s playoff win over Pittsburgh, “Really, we’re here because of our defense.”
New England: A quarterback who overcomes … everything
This isn't intended to be a shot at Matt Ryan. I'm merely stating the obvious: Tom Brady does more with less than any quarterback in the league — maybe more than any in history. Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Johnny Unitas, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, John Elway, Manning — they all had/have had better weapons to work with over the course of their career than Brady.
Brady has a great tight end in Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots have a weak running game — they signed Steven Jackson! — and the receiving corps typically is average. (Former Patriot Wes Welker was Brady’s only Pro Bowl receiver since 2008). Even the Patriots’ offensive line is less than average. New England has started 13 different line combinations and played at least 37 combinations (according to Sports Illustrated). New England makes a ton of draft and personnel mistakes, but Brady covers up for the flaws. He also made millionaires of some overrated coaches. Ask anybody who watched Charlie Weis.
Perhaps most remarkable of all, Brady still plays at an incredibly high level, despite his age (38) and other deficiencies on the team. The Falcons’ problem is the same as 30 other NFL teams: They can’t have him.
