The Falcons continue to play musical chairs with their coaching staff and plan to add two more former general managers, Phil Emery and Ruston Webster, to the personnel department. (They will now have five former GMs in the building, including Rich McKay, Scott Pioli and Billy Devaney. It remains uncertain who will order whom to make coffee.)
Perhaps one day soon, the organization will even allow the current general manager, Thomas Dimitroff, speak to the media again. But let’s not go crazy.
While Dimitroff, coach Dan Quinn and other staff members are in Mobile, Ala., scouting players at the Senior Bowl, the Carolina Panthers are going through early preparations for the Super Bowl. The fact Carolina plays in the NFC South makes this Haves vs. Have-Nots week that much worse for the Falcons. Carolina has won three straight division titles.
How far do the Falcons have to go to catch Carolina? A ways. I’ve outlined their primary weaknesses in previous columns (Shorthand: pass rush and the interior of their offensive line). The simplest way to break down a franchise is with the four corners: ownership, coaching, quarterbacks, personnel/general manager. So here are my rankings of the four teams in the South:
Owners
Ranking: 1. Jerry Richardson (Carolina); 2. Arthur Blank (Falcons); 3. Glazer family (Tampa Bay); 4. Tom Benson family (New Orleans).
Analysis: Blank's desire to win and willingness to spend money is unquestioned. But he also has made mistakes, feels pressure to sell PSLs for the new stadium and is far higher profile in football matters than Richardson, a former NFL player who generally stays in the background. Richardson is the first of the four owners to go to his second Super Bowl and he's won five NFC South titles (the others three each) and two conference championships in 14 years. The Glazers and Benson each have won Super Bowls, but the Glazers have been infamous for their mismanagement in recent years and the Saints' ownership was damaged by an estate battle in court amid Tom Benson's failing health.
Head coaches
Ranking: 1. Sean Payton (New Orleans); 2. Ron Rivera (Carolina); 3. Dan Quinn (Falcons); 4. Dirk Koetter (Tampa Bay).
Analysis: Payton surprisingly chose to stay with New Orleans for at least one more season, and that's bad news for the rest of the South because he's one of the few things the Saints have going for them. Rivera, rumored to be almost fired after his second season, has evolved into one of the league's best coaches and should be credited for the Panthers' toughness, defense (his specialty) and the development of Cam Newton. Quinn has only slightly less to prove as an NFL head coach than the recently promoted Koetter. The Falcons' surprising 5-0 start was followed by an even more stunning six-game losing streak that submarined playoff hopes. Season 2 will be telling.
Quarterbacks
Ranking: 1. Cam Newton (Carolina); 2. Drew Brees (New Orleans); 3. Matt Ryan (Falcons); 4. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay).
Analysis: Ranking the first two were easy. Newton's phenomenal season and his ability to win games is even more impressive when you consider Carolina's lack of skill players around him. His quarterback rating in two playoff games is 113.4 (35-for-50, 496 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, as well as 50 yards and two touchdowns rushing). Brees, at 36, was among league leaders in yards (4,870), touchdowns (32), completion percentage (68.3) and rating (101.0). Based on expectations, I could have easily put Winston ahead of Ryan. But the overall numbers were comparable and I'm not ready to flip the two based on Ryan's bad season and Winston's impressive rookie campaign. For the Falcons to make a jump next season, Ryan and the offense must be better.
Personnel/general managers
Ranking: 1. Carolina. 2. Falcons. 3. Tampa Bay. 4. New Orleans.
Analysis: None of the four teams are well stocked, to be honest. The Panthers have a strong interior offensive line, Newton and tight end Greg Olson on offense and three great players on defense (linebacker Luke Kuechly, as well as sudden stars Josh Norman at cornerback and Kawann Short at defensive tackle). But overall GM Dave Gettleman, a long-time New York Giants' personnel man, has done a nice job. The Falcons' shortcomings are well known. The Bucs and Saints both have significant personnel issues and New Orleans is still coming out of salary cap penitentiary. The big issue: Can the Falcons, with Quinn exerting the most influence in the room over Dimitroff and the ever expanding personnel department, make more correct decisions, particularly when it comes to linemen and edge rushers? This past year actually was a step forward, with Vic Beasley in particular coming on strong late in the season. But the six-game losing streak overshadows the good.
Overall ranking: Based on a 1-4 points system, Carolina wins the rankings with 15 points, followed by the Falcons (10), Saints (9) and Buccaneers (6). There's a clear gap after No. 1.
