We all wrote Georgia off after the unaccountable loss to Florida. Georgia Tech has won nine games and clinched a share of first place in the ACC Coastal Division, but we’ve never actually written the Yellow Jackets into the College Football Playoff discussion. But look now.
Each is included in the latest playoff rankings: Georgia at No. 10, Tech at No. 18. Each has a chance to play for its conference title, though each is dependent on somebody else losing. Each had its biggest victory of the season Saturday. Each has lost twice.
Disclaimer: It would be an upset if either team made the four-team field, and for Tech to qualify would be a stunner on the order of Chaminade over Virginia. But this is college football, where form seldom holds. (Did we mention that Georgia lost by 18 points to Florida, which dumped its coach 13 days later?)
Long story short: Georgia has a chance — not a great chance, but not a snowball-in-Hades, either — to crack the top four; Tech’s odds are more akin to said snowball’s. And here, with the able help of Brad Edwards, who parses the playoff for ESPN, we assess.
With losses to South Carolina and Florida, which between them are 10-9, it’s a wonder the Bulldogs remain in such high esteem. But when they’ve looked good, they’ve looked very good — against Clemson (No. 22), against Missouri (No. 20) and against Auburn (No. 14) on Saturday. The aggregate margin of those victories was 85 points.
If Missouri loses to Tennessee or to Arkansas, the Bulldogs will play for the SEC title. Alabama (ranked No. 1) is positioned to win the SEC West. Don’t discount the cachet that an SEC champ, even one lugging two losses, would have.
“There’s an obvious drop-off after the one-loss group,” Edwards said. “Georgia would need a lot of help. But if they can get one loss from Missouri, they have a chance. They can be the SEC champion, which we all felt like would get in — though that’s not a given the way things are shaking out.”
Then this: “If they get help from somewhere — from Florida State or Oregon losing — they have a realistic shot. A two-loss SEC champ would have a claim.”
A caveat: If Oregon were to lose to UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, that wouldn’t necessarily be a boon to the Bulldogs. The Bruins, who suffered home losses to Oregon and Utah, are nonetheless ranked one spot ahead of Georgia, surely because Oregon and Utah are deemed stronger than South Carolina and Florida. The quality-of-losses component might bite the Bulldogs yet.
Another: If Mississippi State (No. 4) beats Ole Miss (No. 8) and finishes 11-1 but doesn’t play for the SEC title, it still figures to be ranked ahead of Georgia, even if these Bulldogs upset Alabama for the conference championship. There seems no way that the playoff won’t include one SEC team, but would it feature two if one isn’t Bama?
As for Tech: “We’ll have to wait and see,” Edwards said. “If they beat Georgia, where will they be ranked at that point? I just don’t know if they’d be close enough for (the ACC Championship game, assuming Tech makes it) to matter.”
Say Duke loses to North Carolina or Wake Forest and Tech makes it to Charlotte and topples Florida State, which hasn’t lost since Nov. 24, 2012. Would that result shock the committee into bumping the Jackets way, way up? “I don’t know that there’s a lot of respect for Florida State at this point,” Edwards said. “So many teams have almost beaten them. If Georgia Tech should do it, I think the reaction would be, ‘Finally.’”
Since September, it has been apparent that the only ACC team apt to make the final four is Florida State. It’s more likely that two Big 12 teams (Baylor and TCU, neither in the top four) would make it than any ACC rep other than FSU.
Bottom line: Georgia could beat Auburn, Tech and Alabama in the span of four weeks and not be assured of playoff inclusion; Tech could finish with victories over Clemson, Georgia and Florida State and not come close. But we stress that this is all speculation. This being the playoff’s inaugural season, whatever happens will have no precedent.
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