If Georgia Tech had Georgia’s RPI, the Yellow Jackets would make it. If Georgia had Tech’s four significant wins, the Bulldogs would make it. As it stands, our state’s best hope to crash the NCAA tournament is Georgia State.
To clarify: If Georgia had Tech’s quality of wins, the Bulldogs’ RPI would be 30 spots higher than the current 53. Tech’s NCAA odds have been reduced to infinitesimal because four victories over teams in the RPI’s top 24 have been offset by a bad non-conference schedule (271st among 351 Division I teams) and a bad road record (2-10). Ergo, Tech’s RPI is 94, which would be 23 spots lower than the lowest for an at-large invitee.
Between Tech and Georgia, the Bulldogs have the more direct path to the Big Dance. Should they win twice in Nashville, they’ll have a real shot. The second of those victories would be against Kentucky, and beating the Wildcats would give Georgia the one thing it lacks – a victory over a team ranked in the RPI’s top 40. (Kentucky is No. 7.)
Georgia’s RPI is 53, which is quite good for a team that finished eighth in a league that will do well to claim five NCAA berths. Here again is where non-conference play resonates: The Bulldogs played Kansas, Clemson and Marquette. They lost to all three, but their non-league strength of schedule ranks 21st. RPI loves SOS. Yes, it’s possible to game the system.
Georgia’s best victory is over Vanderbilt, which has an RPI of 44. That’s a flimsy resume for a Power 5 team. Beating Kentucky would change the dynamics. Even as we stipulate that the NCAA basketball committee tends to value conference tournament results less than we think, the Bulldogs’ profile would look rather different with a win over the Big Blue. And here we note that Mark Fox’s teams are 2-13 against Kentucky.
Tech heads to Brooklyn with much more work to do. Even if it upsets Virginia (RPI of 16) in Round 2 of the ACC tournament, that mightn’t be enough to offset what would be, provided the Jackets don’t up and win the whole shebang, a 15-loss season. Never has an at-large bid gone to a team with more than 14.
Tech’s season has essentially been the opposite of Georgia’s – enough high points to warrant attention but not much else. (Georgia’s has the “else” but not the peaks.) As noted, the Jackets have four wins over teams ranked 24th or higher; they have only six over opponents rated 25th through 210th.
For all the accolades flowing Tech's way – Josh Pastner was named ACC coach of the year and Ben Lammers the league's top defender – cold numbers remind us how improbable this season has been. The Jackets are last in the conference in field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage, next-to-last in free-throw percentage. They've guarded like mad, but over the past two weeks we saw what can happen when a team gets a second look at their changing defenses. North Carolina State, which Tech beat in Raleigh, came here and won; Syracuse, which lost by six at McCamish Pavilion, won by 29 in the Carrier Dome.
The Tech season has largely been a happy surprise. It would, however, be the shock of all shocks if the Jackets make serious noise in New York. A team that essentially goes only seven deep wouldn’t seem suited for the task of winning five games in five days, or even three in three.
As for Georgia: It's unclear whether Yante Maten will be cleared to play in the SEC tournament. Without him, the Bulldogs' margin for error has been reduced to hoping J.J. Frazier makes everything he puts up. (He almost has.) That said, this Frazier-powered crew nearly toppled Kentucky on Feb. 18, albeit in Athens.
If you’re seeking the local with the best Dance chance, look no further than the Concrete Campus. Georgia State isn’t as good as it was two years ago, when it won the Sun Belt and toppled Baylor in the NCAA tournament, or the year before, when it was 17-1 in league play but lost the conference final in overtime. But that’s the thing: There’s no Sun Belt team as good as those Panthers.
By beating Georgia Southern on Saturday, Georgia State claimed the Sun Belt’s No. 2 seed. That could mean a semifinal date with the Eagles, who head to New Orleans having lost five of seven. The top seed is Texas-Arlington, which beat the Panthers last month on a 25-footer. The Mavericks are a nice team – they beat Saint Mary’s, another nice team, on the road – but weird things happen in mid-major tournaments. Ask Ron Hunter, who had his heart broken in one and tore his Achilles in celebration the very next year.
It could be that Selection Sunday passes without any Georgia-based team seeing its name in the only bracket that matters. It could be that a harmonic convergence sweeps all three into the field of 68. But I wouldn’t bet on the latter.
