It’s the World Series matchup no one predicted two weeks ago, let alone two months ago. St. Louis vs. Texas, two teams from the same time zone that have nonetheless faced each other just once before, in the 2004 regular-season series.
A pair of mid-payrolled teams from the part of the country that singer-songwriter James McMurtry calls “out here in the middle ... We got tractor pulls and Red Man chew. Corporate relo refugees that need love, too.”
For baseball it’s a refreshing change, and it should be a great series.
We’ve got nothing but 8:05 p.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) starts, the game’s best player (Albert Pujols) and the postseason’s hottest hitter (Nelson Cruz). Plus, instead of any of three teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies) a certain network drove down our throats for six-plus months, we’ve got two teams that have been baseball’s hottest for more than a month.
The National League’s All-Star game win gives St. Louis home-field advantage for the best-of-seven series that starts Wednesday at Busch Stadium. Now, here are seven factors, including that one, that could go a long way in crowning a new champion.
Chris Carpenter vs. C.J. Wilson: While Rangers ace Wilson had the better season, Carpenter has outperformed him in October(s). Carpenter is 7-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 12 postseason starts (team 10-2), including 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three this year. Wilson's 1-4 record and 5.40 ERA in seven postseason starts includes 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in three this year, with six homers allowed in 15 2/3 innings. They'll square off in the series opener and in a potential Game 5. The winner of Game 1 has won seven of the past eight World Series.
Cardinals on a roll: Trailing the Braves by 10 1/2 games in the wild-card race Aug. 25, the Cardinals have since been on a 30-13 tear while scoring 220 runs and hitting 41 homers. Their postseason ERA (4.18) is more than a run higher than the 3.07 they had during their 23-9 surge to end the regular season. However, the Cardinals have averaged 5.6 runs in the postseason, up from 4.9 during that regular-season push.
Rangers on one, too: The only team hotter than St. Louis is Texas, which is 21-5 since Sept. 11, including 7-3 in the postseason. Since being shut out by Tampa Bay in the division-series opener, the Rangers have scored 55 runs in nine games. Making a second consecutive World Series appearance, they are 15-11 with 33 homers and a 3.86 ERA in the past two postseasons.
Raking on the road: The Cardinals will not be intimidated playing in Texas, even if the Rangers are 15-3 in 18 home games since Aug. 28 and have scored seven or more runs a remarkable 13 times in those 18 games. Remember, Milwaukee's 57-24 home record was the best in baseball this season, and Miller Park was a noisy cauldron in the playoffs. But the Cards won two of three there in the NLCS and racked up 30 runs in those three games.
DH edge to ... NL: Yes, as odd as it seems, the team from the designated-hitter league, Texas, will be at a disadvantage when the DH is used in the games at Texas. Because while the Rangers could use Michael Young, David Murphy or catcher Mike Napoli as DH, the Cardinals likely will go with Lance Berkman and play Allen Craig in the outfield. Berkman has a .300 average, .401 OBP and eight homers with 36 RBIs in 45 postseason games, including six RBIs this postseason and at least one hit in eight of 11 games.
Bullpen battle: Both teams made it through the first two rounds despite their starting rotations, not because of them. Rangers starters had a 6.59 ERA in the ALCS, and Cardinals starters had a 7.03 ERA in the NLCS. But while the rotations have regressed, both bullpens have ramped up their performance. St. Louis relievers allowed a .177 average in the first two rounds, and went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in the NLCS while working 28 2/3 innings to their starters' 24 1/3. Texas relievers have a .193 postseason opponents' average and went 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in the ALCS while totaling 27 1/3 innings to their starters' 28 2/3.
Feliz vs. Motte: Rangers closer Neftali Feliz, a former Braves prospect, gave up a homer and two hits while recording one out in second career postseason game in 2010. Since then he has produced a 0.66 ERA and .093 OBA in 12 postseason appearances, including 11 Rangers wins. ... Cardinals closer Jason Motte has allowed one hit and no walks in nine scoreless innings of eight postseason appearances, seven this year. He has a streak of five perfect innings with five strikeouts in his past five appearances
Mr. Pujols: Berkman and Matt Holliday picked up the slack when Pujols had an uncharacteristically sluggish April, but since May, Albert has been Albert, posting a .316 average, 30 homers and a .954 OPS in his past 117 regular-season games. He hit .328 with 20 homers in the final 71 regular-season games and has hit .419 with seven doubles, two homers, 10 RBIs and a .490 OPB and .721 slugging percentage in 11 postseason games. After going 2-for-18 in his first postseason, in 2001, the iconic Cardinals slugger has done this in his past 62 postseason games: .357 average, 14 homers, 45 runs, 44 RBIs, 40 walks, .459 OBP and .629 slugging percentage (1.088 OPS).
Prediction: Cardinals in six games.
