If nothing else, I’m awed by the Braves’ audacity. They just sent a very good 24-year-old starting pitcher and a 21-year-old infielder rated their No. 1 prospect to Los Angeles, and they threw in their latest closer and a left-handed reliever.
In return: A big-league reliever who’s hurt; a minor-league starting pitcher; a draft pick and a 30-year-old Cuban infielder who has never played an MLB game. I’m not sure any other team would have considered such a trade, let alone swung it. But that’s not to say what they did was crazy.
Dan Szymborski of ESPN and Ben Lindbergh, formerly of Baseball Prospectus and now of Grantland, are two of the sport’s keenest analysts. They were asked about the transaction that shipped Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan — and also Bronson Arroyo’s contract — to the Dodgers, essentially for Hector Olivera. Neither writer, you should know, was wild about it.
“I’m not sure I understand,” Lindbergh wrote in an email. “Unless they think he’s about to be the next (Jose) Abreu — and at his age, Olivera will only be useful for so long — it doesn’t seem like they got a ton back for Wood and Peraza.”
Wrote Szymborski: “Olivera’s not really a prospect or a core piece you build around. The reality is that he’s played very little baseball in the last two years, and he’s going to be 31 next season — he’s already in his decline years!”
I agree that Olivera is a major risk. I haven’t seen him play, and I daresay (to use a Chipper Jones word) you haven’t, either. The Braves have. They offered $40 million to sign him over the offseason, but were outbid by $22.5 million by the Dodgers. Obviously those evaluators — Andrew Friedman, who made his reputation with Tampa Bay, runs the show in L.A. — rated him highly, too.
Please know that John Hart, the Braves’ president of baseball operations, and assistant general manager John Coppolella didn’t do this on a whim. By design, theirs had become an organization a-swim in young pitching, but with only the faintest vestige of power. (The Braves traded their No. 2 and No. 4 homer-hitters — Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe — to the Mets last week for more young pitching.)
The Braves rank last in the majors in homers and slugging percentage. There’s no prospect apt to hit 20 homers in a big-league season. Olivera has that potential. He could be the guy to protect Freddie Freeman and drive home those singles hitters, and he’s regarded as big-league ready.
The Braves will owe Olivera roughly half of that $62.5 million. (The Dodgers are covering his $28 million signing bonus and this year’s $2 million in salary.) For five years of what the Braves believe will be productive hitting, they’ll pay $6.5 million per annum. The unwanted Chris Johnson is slated to make $7 million next season.
Why sacrifice Wood and Peraza? The Braves loved the former’s tenacity, but worried that funky biomechanics have taken a toll. (His sinker had lost 2 mph in two years; his strikeout rate was down 23 percent from last season.) Peraza is a singles-hitter who can run but doesn’t walk. (His on-base percentage at Triple-A Gwinnett was a pedestrian .318.)
The Braves believe they have a passel of young pitchers with more sustainable futures than Wood and at least one middle infielder (Ozzie Albies, now in Single-A) who projects higher than Peraza. That’s why this trade was made.
Be advised that Szymborski, who questioned the return, was impressed by the method. “The strict draft caps and international signing bonus caps have made it a little harder to rebuild with prospects,” he wrote. “With that route gone, teams need to be more creative.
“One way to do it is like in the Touki Toussaint trade (with Arizona last month): The Braves are essentially ‘buying’ a solid prospect (by assuming Arroyo’s contract). … The Olivera trade is the other way around, cashing in players for money. Instead of signing a guy and giving him a $28 million bonus, the Braves are trading players to get the guy that required the bonus.”
This wasn’t some flight of fancy. The Braves swapped two young assets deemed superfluous for the kind of hitter they’ll have to have if they’re to do anything of note. (Note that the free-agency market for bats this fall is seen as soft.) That they did it in such an exotic way suggests they can match brainpower with any organization, which is the best news yet.
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