The Falcons already possess a high draft spot.
With the fourth overall pick, there should be a number of elite prospects to choose from when the Falcons are on the clock when this year’s NFL draft begins April 29. And if the Falcons stay at that slot, they should be able to select someone who could potentially evolve into the face of the franchise over the long haul.
That stated, if the Falcons trade back from the No. 4 spot, they could accumulate draft picks and add to the roster, considering that at the present time there will be only 39 players under contract when the new league year begins March 17.
However, there may be a few prospects worth considering trading up for because they have the potential to change franchises.
The first is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is all but set to be the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. Given the Jacksonville Jaguars’ recent coaching change and the number of picks they possess in addition to the top spot, it would be foolish to trade out of this position.
That doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t try to get them do so.
Hypothetically speaking, it would cost a lot to go from No. 4 to No. 1 -- not only because of the standard value of trading picks but because of Lawrence’s caliber. A recent example of a swap within the top five came in 2017, when the Chicago Bears traded its 67th and 111th overall picks, to go with a 2018 third-rounder, to take the San Francisco 49ers’ No. 2 selection. With it, the Bears drafted quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
Given how expensive moving one spot up was for the Bears, the Falcons would need to expect to give up even more to get the No. 1 pick and take a player such as Lawrence.
Again, it would be silly for the Jaguars to give up the No. 1 pick to anyone, and that’s not likely to happen. But the Falcons could feasibly trade up to Nos. 2 or 3. In fact, ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has the Falcons moving from No. 4 to No. 2 to take BYU quarterback Zach Wilson in his most recent mock draft. While the Falcons aren’t in the market to draft a quarterback to play in 2021, having this high of a pick could be too much to pass on in this department. It would allow the team to still play Matt Ryan while familiarizing the young quarterback with the NFL game.
If the Falcons feel certain about a prospect and are worried that the New York Jets (No. 2 overall) and the Miami Dolphins (No. 3) could either take those players or trade their selections to other teams, then they may feel it’s in their best interest to make a deal themselves.
But trading up to the second or third pick could also be for a position other than quarterback. While Wilson and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields are considered the next best quarterbacks behind Lawrence, Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell is considered to be a once-per-generation type of player up front. Although the Falcons don’t need an offensive lineman, starting left tackle Jake Matthews holds an average salary-cap figure of $19.5 million over the next three seasons.
In 2022, the Falcons can save $8.1 million against the cap with Matthews’ release. Therefore, the opportunity to take Sewell is something that could be considered if the team feels he could be taken before the fourth overall pick.
For now, however, Kiper has the Cincinnati Bengals take Sewell with the fifth overall selection.
“People may say, ‘Oh, he’s a little overrated.’ I’m not buying that,” Kiper said. “He didn’t play this year. (If he did) and built on what he did in 2019, he would have been regarded as the next (Tony) Boselli, (Jonathan) Ogden or (Orlando) Pace. I see why you wouldn’t put him in that category right now because he didn’t play this year. … I would think Sewell, to me, would be no later than five. Some are projecting him down at 10. I don’t see that happening.”
If the Falcons feel Sewell or either of the other top-tier quarterbacks are at risk of being selected before the fourth pick, it might be tough to stay put. Although moving up even one spot could prove expensive, it’s not nearly the cost it would be if the Falcons were sitting back in the bottom half of the top 10.
Following the 2021 draft, the hope, and goal, for the Falcons is not to have a season that results in having the fourth overall pick for a long time. Therefore, the Falcons need to make the most of this opportunity, especially with a new regime, while they can.
“It’s not somewhere we want to be in very often with this team,” Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said. “We are going to take advantage of that, and we’re going to be open to all possibilities.”
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