The Braves entered Tuesday at 19-22, continuing an unimpressive start in which they haven’t yet crossed the .500 mark.
After the Mets’ victory at Truist Park Monday, the Braves entered play three games behind New York for first place in the National League East. The Braves have won the division three consecutive seasons and earned an NL Championship Series berth last October, taking the eventual champion Dodgers down to the wire.
Their odds of a fourth consecutive NL East crown, however, face an uphill climb. It’s still relatively early – the MLB season hasn’t yet reached the Memorial Day checkpoint – and the Braves undoubtedly have the talent of a playoff team, but they’ve yet to perform to their own high standard.
Projection models, which to be fair haven’t always had an accurate pulse of the team, aren’t keen on a rebound. FanGraphs gave the Braves a 60.7% chance at making the postseason on opening day, as well as a 28% chance to win the division. Those odds were lower than only the Mets, who had a 82.1% chance at the postseason and 59.2% shot at winning the division.
The Braves’ odds have drastically dipped entering play Tuesday. FanGraphs now gives the Braves a 29% chance at the postseason – lower than six other NL teams – and just a 14.1% shot at the division, which the Mets are heavily favored to win (68.7%) despite only possessing a 19-16 record.
FanGraphs projected the Braves at 87.5 wins on opening day. They’re down to 82.2, which means they’d finish barely above .500. That is, at least, projecting the Braves to improve their current trajectory. The team has evened its record several times only to experience a skid that puts it further behind the eight ball.
Baseball Reference’s projections have soured on the Braves too, though they still give the team a 38.2% chance at the playoffs and 33.1% shot at winning the division, both the highest percentages in the NL East. The average win projections are low in the NL East, with the Braves’ 82.3 wins as the highest average, besting the Mets’ 80.5. Nonetheless, if the Braves claim another division title, give Baseball Reference credit for standing on an island in mid-May.
PECOTA, which took heat for pegging the Braves at 82 wins and a fourth-place finish entering the campaign, gives the Braves just a 17.6% chance at the playoffs and 6.7% chance at the division. PECOTA has the Braves at 81.2 wins, which places them behind the Mets (91.3) and Phillies (85.4).
Projections only mean so much. The MLB season is full of twists and turns. Predicting where both leagues stand in late September with barely over 40 games in the books is often a fool’s errand (outside very few exceptions, like the Dodgers, who are approaching 1990s Braves status when it comes to being penned into the postseason bracket). But there’s no doubt the Braves’ postseason hopes have taken a hit with their mediocre start. If they turn it around and go on a run - their talent still suggests they’re capable of such - projections will change and what was thought May 18 becomes irrelevant.
Until they do so, it’s fair to be skeptical. The Braves have dealt with an abundance of injuries and underperformance, the perfect formula to underachieve. The good news: There are 121 games remaining, and even a strong two-week stretch can put their first six in the rearview mirror.
