On Thursday morning, the Braves met to decide their pitching plans for this weekend’s series against the Royals and Monday’s doubleheader versus the Mets. And in doing so, they had to ponder every possibility imaginable.
The Braves are taking a day-to-day approach because they know they need to get into the postseason first. With an eye toward their standing in the wild-card race, and the results of the Mets and Diamondbacks, they will make decisions on a daily basis.
The first one: Max Fried will start Friday’s series opener against the Royals at Truist Park. Fried, a routine-oriented pitcher, doesn’t like having too much extra rest. He was going to start Friday or Saturday, and the Braves opted for Friday, which allows him to pitch on only one extra day of rest instead of two.
The Braves didn’t announce starting pitchers for the games on Saturday and Sunday. They’ll wait to decide on those days, based on what happens with them and the wild card race.
You might be wondering: What about Chris Sale? Well, that’s where this becomes interesting. The Braves intend to use Sale whenever their season is on the line and they’re facing elimination from postseason contention. For example, if there is a scenario this weekend where the Braves would face elimination, Sale will pitch.
Sale, the likely National League Cy Young award winner, has been the Braves’ best starting pitcher. He also doesn’t mind pitching on extra rest. For example, Sale pitched July 14 in San Diego – the game heading into the All-Star break – and then didn’t start again until July 25, when he held the Mets to two runs over 7-2/3 innings at Citi Field.
The Braves could have five games in four days – if both games of Monday’s doubleheader are necessary. They’re preparing to throw all five of their starters. They’ve told their pitching staff that it’ll be all hands on deck and to be ready for anything. The Braves are preparing for any scenario.
Reynaldo López (right shoulder inflammation) is eligible to come off the injured list whenever the Braves want to reinstate him. He’ll start one of the remaining games, as will Charlie Morton. For now, Grant Holmes, who had started for López, is a reliever.
For the Braves, the ideal scenario would be holding Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach for Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets, which likely will decide the Braves’ fate. And if the Braves need to win only one of those games, they could start Sale in the first game and hold Schwellenbach for Game 1 of a wild-card series. Like Sale, Schwellenbach doesn’t mind starting on extra rest.
But that’s hypothetical.
Right now, the Braves simply are focused on making the postseason.
Sale was scheduled to start Wednesday’s game against the Mets before it was postponed. Fried would be lined up to start that Game 2 of the wild-card series. If Sale doesn’t start Saturday, he wouldn’t be scheduled to start in the wild-card series – at least if going by a traditional pitching schedule. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Sale pitch on short rest if the Braves needed it.
The Royals will start right-hander Brady Singer on Friday, right-hander Seth Lugo on Saturday and left-hander Cole Ragans on Sunday. Kansas City can clinch a postseason berth as early as Friday.
The Braves went into Thursday one game behind both the Mets and Diamondbacks, with five to play. Arizona hosts San Diego this weekend, and the Mets are in Milwaukee before they return to Truist Park for Monday’s doubleheader.
The Braves own the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks because the Braves won five of the seven games between the teams this season. The Mets and Diamondbacks can clinch as early as Saturday, but that would take the Braves losing.
Arizona’s magic number is three, meaning any number of their wins and Braves losses that equals three will send them to the playoffs. The Mets’ magic number is five, so they need a combination of wins and Braves losses that adds up to five. The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.
As you can see, there are a ton of variables and scenarios for the Braves – which is why they must look at this from a daily perspective. They’ll be closely monitoring Arizona and the Mets, all while putting everything into winning that day’s game.
The first goal for the goal: making the postseason. They cannot set up their pitching plans for the playoffs if they don’t make it.
First up, Fried. And then the Braves will use Sale when they absolutely must.
For now, everything else is to be determined. The Braves just know everyone will pitch in this final stretch.
It’ll be a wild ride to the finish line.
