PHILADELPHIA – Hey there,
We are entering the final month of the season. It might get wild.
At this point, the Braves are in decent standing – provided they can at least split this weekend’s series in Philadelphia.
Thursday was not a good start. But the Braves have a terrific ability to flush tough losses and move forward. Let’s see if they can do it again.
But let’s take a look at the bigger picture – as I’ve tried to do in these newsletters in recent weeks. After all, you probably want to know whether the Braves are going to make the postseason and if they can win it all.
Let’s look at the three reasons for optimism and three concerns at this point.
Optimism
1. The pitching staff – particularly the rotation – is disgusting. The starters should keep the Braves in most games. They’ve done it this season. The Braves have two elite starters in Chris Sale and Max Fried. The others fall into line from there. And the late-inning options are terrific. In particular, Raisel Iglesias is having an unreal season.
2. The Braves still have talent in the lineup – especially if Matt Olson stays hot. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t cooled. They should get Ozzie Albies back in the middle of September. They still have Michael Harris II in the order. The fill-ins have supplemented, but the Braves’ regulars – the ones who started the season in the lineup – are dangerous enough to carry this team by themselves. Even without Ronald Acuña Jr., this Braves offense has enough when you consider how stingy their pitching has been this season.
3. The Braves have dealt with so much adversity and haven’t played well for much of the season. Thus, they won’t be racing to 100-plus wins this season. They won’t be making history. They won’t be setting records. And they won’t have as much of a target on their backs this October. Maybe that idea is more created by the outside world than those in baseball, but it just feels like the Braves will have less pressure on them this postseason – if they make it – because of all they’ve experienced. This could be a positive. How often do the dominant regular-season teams win a World Series? Not often. Baseball is like that.
Concern
1. The Braves are receiving contributions from Ramón Laureano and Whit Merrifield. They’ve filled in admirably. Luke Williams had a great game in Minnesota. Everyone has been chipping in at different times over the last week. But I wonder if this Braves lineup will cool down a bit. If only a couple guys are hitting, it won’t feature the same length as it would when the group is fully healthy. It feels like the Braves are constantly walking a fine line because of those injuries. In recent seasons, their core has given them a deep lineup. There were so many options in terms of guys who could be hot at a given time. Now, there are fewer such options.
2. The offense has often put the pitching in a spot where it must be close to perfect. And many times, the pitching has been darn near perfect. But can the Braves afford a poor start in the postseason? Or against a tough team? They might not have the firepower to come back on a consistent basis because they’re not a full strength. What if there’s regression with the pitchers? What if they tire? The Braves have done a great job of getting them extra rest this season. They look good and haven’t shown any blatant signs of regression or exhaustion.
3. I don’t want to even put this out in the universe, but the Braves cannot, cannot, cannot afford another injury. They’ve stayed afloat and kept this thing together thus far. It’s miraculous. But this season has been full of bad luck, and we all hope there’s not another cruel twist around the corner. The Braves are in a vulnerable spot because they’ve already suffered so many blows. They cannot take another. Or maybe they can. They’ve shown their resiliency this season.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Extra Innings
*Brandon Marsh hit a key three-run homer off Charlie Morton in Thursday’s game.
Before that, Marsh was 2-for-12 with nine strikeouts against Morton in the regular season. In the postseason, though, he is 1-for-1 with the massive three-run homer in Game 4 of the 2022 National League Division Series – the final game of that Braves season.
Snitker said he liked the Morton-Marsh matchup. One has to wonder how much of this was also because of his taxed bullpen. Snitker said he wanted Morton to retire two more batters before the Braves went to Aaron Bummer for Kyle Schwarber.
The Braves likely didn’t have their big bullets available out of the bullpen after heavy usage in Minnesota.
*Olson on Thursday notched his third multi-homer game of the season, and 24th of his career. He has four homers over his last five games. And don’t look now, but he’s five home runs away from a fourth consecutive season of at least 30 homers.
*When I looked at the Braves’ scheduled starters for this Philadelphia series, something stuck out: The Phillies will only see Chris Sale once in the regular season – his first start of the year.
That could help the Braves if they see the Phillies in the postseason. Sale is so unique with his delivery, and his stuff is electric. He’s been at his peak this season.
Yes, I guess this means the Phillies have just seen other Braves starters multiple times. But Sale would be a new challenge.
Sale, who has to be the National League Cy Young front-runner, is so good that maybe none of this matters. But it came to mind.
*The Mets enter Friday three games behind the Braves for the National League’s third wild card spot. Here’s why I’d feel good if I were a Braves fan: The Mets have seven games against the Phillies, three in Atlanta and three in Milwaukee – all in September.
That’s going to be tough sledding.
Then again, New York just took two of three from the red-hot Diamondbacks in Arizona, so who knows?
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