The Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats making recent gains in Georgia, with Joe Biden eking out a slim lead over President Donald Trump and Jon Ossoff knotted up against U.S. Sen. David Perdue.
It’s also the latest poll that has Democrat Raphael Warnock as the clear front-runner in the chaotic special election for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s seat – and it gives him a head-to-head lead over both Loeffler and U.S. Rep. Doug Collins in a likely Jan. 5 runoff.
Biden edged Trump 50-45 among registered voters – just outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Another 2% back Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% were undecided. Among likely voters, the results are slightly narrowed, with Biden topping Trump 50-46 in a high turnout scenario.
Though the numbers represent a small swing toward Biden, the results are not statistically different from the Monmouth poll’s previous polls in September and July.
There was a bigger shift in contest for Perdue’s seat. In Monmouth’s September poll, the Republican led Ossoff 48-42. In this survey, the race was within the margin of error, with Ossoff at 49% and Perdue at 46%. Libertarian Shane Hazel was at 2% and another 2% are undecided.
In the special election race, Warnock has pulled into a clear lead with 41% support – though still far short of the majority-vote he needs to avoid a Jan. 5 runoff. Loeffler and Collins are in a tight race for second place; Loeffler is at 21% and Collins at 18%. Other contenders are in the single-digits.
While the two Republicans pummel each other, Warnock has consolidated Democratic support and avoided many GOP attacks. It helps explain his solid standing in a potential runoff matchups: He leads Loeffler 49-41 and Collins 51-39 among registered voters.
The race is slightly closer among those most likely to vote in a lower-turnout January runoff, but Warnock is still ahead. He’s up 51-45 over Loeffler and 52-45 over Collins.
Other recent surveys, including an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Monday, showed a tight race for president and other top contests. Biden visited Georgia on Tuesday to rally voters in a state that hasn’t voted Democratic for president since 1992, yet another sign of the close race.
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