This poll is intended to provide a snapshot of how Georgia Republicans are feeling about the presidential primary, the indictment of Donald Trump in Fulton County, and issues facing the nation. It is the first in a series of polls The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has planned leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
Polling is just one component of how the AJC covers politics and state government.
Polling is not perfect, but it remains the most effective tool available for measuring public opinion. For every poll story, AJC reporters follow up with dozens of respondents to get a clearer picture of the results. Some of those respondents are quoted in our stories.
We know you may have questions about our polls, so we provide detailed explanations of how our polls are conducted so you can evaluate them for yourself.
Here are some common questions about our polls and their answers:
Q: Who conducted the poll?
A: The poll was conducted for the AJC by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia.
The calls were made Aug. 16-23 under the direction of M.V. “Trey” Hood III, the director of the center and a professor of political science. The poll was conducted after Fulton County announced indictments against Donald Trump and others in connection with efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
UGA began polling for the AJC in 2018. An archive of our polls can be found at https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-polls/.
Q: Who selected the questions?
A: AJC editors and reporters chose the questions based on current issues in the news and questions we have about what Georgia voters care about. Some questions are the same from poll to poll. Every poll also asks a series of standard demographic questions.
Q: Whom did we talk to?
A: The School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center contacted 807 likely Republican primary voters. These are Georgians from across the state who are registered to vote, who had voted in the 2020 and/or 2022 statewide Republican primaries, and who said they were definitely or probably going to vote in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The numbers were randomly drawn from a voter registration list obtained through the sampling vendor L2.
The company maintains a database constructed from the state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources, phone numbers have been added to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists.
Ninety percent of the calls were made to cellphone numbers; 10% to landlines.
Q: What is weighting and how do you do it?
A: Some adjustments were made to the total population of people surveyed to best represent the 2024 GOP primary electorate in terms of race, sex, age and education.
Q: What is the margin of error for the poll and what exactly does that mean?
A: The margin of error for this poll is 3.4 percentage points. No matter how carefully a poll is conducted, there will always be some measure of uncertainty when you survey a small portion of a larger population, such as the state of Georgia. The margin of error is the measure of the uncertainty in the sample.
The margin of error that we report accounts for these sources of uncertainty. For example, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, an issue polling at 50% could have the support of anywhere between 46% and 54%, with a 95% level of confidence.
That means that if we drew 100 different samples using the same methodology, then no more than five times out of 100 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all Georgians were polled.