Editor’s note: Polling results are often described as snapshots at a particular moment of time in a campaign. This, however, is more of a doodle, aggregating election projections from various sources, some that rely entirely on polling while others also take into consideration factors such as demographics and voting histories. This feature will be updated on a periodic basis to show you what’s being scribbled in the margins as the 2020 presidential campaign moves from chapter to chapter.
Now, with only 28 days until the presidential election, the odds have tipped a little more in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, according to the projection models we’ve been tracking.
The gains were uneven. Of the 15 models we checked, six showed no change, while five gave Biden’s total electoral count a bump. Only one added to Republican President Donald Trump’s total, a shift of six votes from the toss-up category (That model also gave Biden 279 electoral votes, enough to win the election). The remaining two models took no votes away from Biden, but each shifted 24 votes away from Trump and into the toss-up category.
‘The Bottom Line’
The shift in totals this past week was six votes — the equivalent of both Dakotas. Remember, it takes a minimum of 270 votes in the Electoral College to win.
Democrat Joe Biden: 290 votes this week, 284 votes last week, 285 votes the week before that
Republican President Donald Trump: 167 votes this week, 173 votes last week, 177 votes the week before that
Toss-up states: 81 votes, 80 votes last week, 76 the week before that
A few other items of note
Four models still don’t give Biden the minimum 270 votes needed for victory, although three fall within two votes of a win. The other is RealClearPolitics, which is generally the most conservative model in terms of awarding votes, where Biden has 226 to Trump’s 125.
Trump’s highest total is the 203 votes he received on two of the models. The president’s lowest total is 123 votes from the Niskanen Center, which last updated its projections on Sept. 15.
The models vary widely on how many electoral votes remain in play. The high is the previously mentioned RealClearPolitics with 187 electoral votes in its toss-up category (The next highest total is 134). Of the models that identify toss-up states (PredictIt does not), the low is 18 (the equivalent of Ohio).
Projections as of noon Monday:
270toWin consensus map (last updated Saturday): Biden, 278; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 91
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 278; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 91
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 278; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 91
270toWin polling map (updated three times daily): Biden, 279; Trump, 125; Toss-up, 134
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 255; Trump, 119; Toss-up, 164
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 281; Trump, 119; Toss-up 138
270toWin polling with no toss-ups (a new feature that updates three times daily): Biden, 369; Trump, 169
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 353; Trump, 185
- Totals on Sept. Sept. 21: Biden, 335; Trump, 203
CNN (last updated Sept. 20): Biden, 269; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 100
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 269; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 100
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 269, Trump, 169; Toss-up, 100
Cook Political Report (last updated Sept. 29): Biden, 290; Trump, 163; Toss-up 85
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 290; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 61
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 290; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 61
The Economist (updated twice daily): Biden, 308; Trump, 164; Toss-up, 66
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 308; Trump, 188; Toss-up, 42
- Totals on Sept. 21 Biden, 308; Trump, 188; Toss-up, 42
FiveThirtyEight (updated every two hours): Biden, 279; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 90
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 279: Trump, 163; Toss-up, 96
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 289; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 80
Inside Elections (last updated Oct. 1): Biden, 319; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 32
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 319; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 32
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 319; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 32
Niskanen Center (last updated Sept. 15): Biden, 318; Trump, 123; Toss-up, 97
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 318; Trump, 123; Toss-up, 97
- Totals on Sep. 21: Biden, 318; Trump 123; Toss-up, 97
NPR (last updated Sept. 16): Biden, 268; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 101
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 268; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 101
- Totals on Sep 21: Biden, 268, Trump, 169; Toss-up, 101
Politico (last updated Sept. 8): Biden, 268; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 67
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 268; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 67
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 268; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 67
PredictIt (updated every four hours): Biden 335; Trump, 203
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 290; Trump, 248; Toss-up, none*
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 290; Trump, 248; Toss-up, none
Princeton Election Consortium: Biden, 351; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 18
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 353; Trump, 163; Toss-up, 22
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 335; Trump, 203; Toss-up, none
RealClearPolitics (last updated Sept. 29): Biden, 226; Trump, 125; Toss-up, 187
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 222; Trump, 125; Toss-up, 191
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 222, Trump, 125; Toss-up, 191
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (last updated Oct. 1): Biden, 279; Trump, 179; Toss-up, 80
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 269; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 66
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 269; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 66
U.S. News (last updated Sept. 29): Biden, 290; Trump, 185; Toss-up, 63
- Totals on Sept. 28: Biden, 278; Trump, 186; Toss-up, 74
- Totals on Sept. 21: Biden, 278; Trump, 186; Toss-up, 74
*PredictIt doesn’t do toss-ups except for equal results, while most other sites define toss-ups as difference between candidates falling within 5 percentage points
Where does Georgia stand
Georgia remains firmly on shaky ground.
Eight of the models still identify the Peach State as up for grabs. Of the rest, all but one still mark Georgia as Republican turf. The outlier is the Princeton Election Consortium, which puts the state in Biden’s column.
What are the other toss-up states?
On its consensus map, 270toWin shows no change on toss-up states. Its list of battlegrounds, in addition to Georgia, still remains short, with just Florida (29 Electoral College votes), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11). Also up for grabs are one congressional district each in Maine and Nebraska. All those states voted for Trump in 2016.
RealClearPolitics this past week moved one state out of its toss-up category, sending New Hampshire and its four votes over to the Biden camp. Still up for grabs, in addition to Georgia, are: Texas (38), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6), plus the individual congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Only one of those states — Nevada — did not vote for Trump in 2016.
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