This week: Joe Biden (D), 284 votes — Donald Trump (R), 173 votes — Toss-up states, 80 votes

Last week: Biden, 285 votes — Trump, 177 votes — Toss-up states, 76

The little movement that occurred

Only three of the 15 models we track showed any change in the past week. Two cut into Biden’s total, but it’s not that simple.

One of them was the FiveThirtyEight map on the 270toWin pundit page, where Biden dropped by 10 votes to 279. The decline followed two moves. First, Arizona and its 11 votes shifted back to toss-up status, meaning the difference between the two candidates was less than 5 percentage points. But Biden gained a vote back by picking up a congressional district in Nebraska, one of two states that break up their electoral votes.

FiveThirtyEight’s prognosticators also took six votes away from Trump by moving Iowa to toss-up status. That leaves the president with 163 votes.

Pay a visit to FiveThirtyEight’s own website and you’ll find a far more complicated picture.

FiveThirtyEight updates its numbers several times a day, once it completes a run of 40,000 simulations of the election. It then sets odds of winning for each candidate. FiveThirtyEight now puts Biden’s chances at 77%, compared with 22% for Trump. That doesn’t mean FiveThirtyEight is counting Trump out. When it first set the president’s odds for reeleciton at the end of August, it noted that it listed his chances on Election Day 2016 at 29%.

On its site, FiveThirtyEight also predicts an outcome on the results in the Electoral College — 330 for Biden to 208 for Trump, a big difference from what it shows on the 270toWin pundit page.

The other model that cost Biden votes was the 270toWin polling map, which knocked the Democrat below the 270 threshold, cutting his total from 281 last week to 255.

But that comes with a few buts …

First, Trump did not pick up any votes with that model, remaining at 119. Second, 270toWin recently added a second polling map as a feature on the pundit page that assigns the toss-up states to the candidate with the higher total, no matter the size of the margin. That model — which we did not use in calculating “The Bottom Line” — gave Biden an 18-point bump to 353 electoral votes, compared with 185 for Trump.

Polling also boosted Biden’s numbers on the third model to show any change: the survey-driven Princeton Election Consortium. The former vice president added 18 electoral votes on that model by picking up Ohio. Trump’s total fell more than that, though, with the shift of 22 other votes into the toss-up category: Georgia’s 16 votes and Iowa’s six.

The Princeton model actually features three maps: the general consensus map cited above, plus maps showing how each candidate would fare if he “outperforms polling” in each state by 3 percentage points.

If Biden ups his game, it predicts he would win 375 to 119, with states still too close to call accounting for 44 electoral votes.

If Trump steps it up, Princeton predicts Biden would still win, this time by 280 to 203 with 55 electoral votes still in play.

Projections as of noon Monday:

270toWin consensus map (last updated Friday): Biden, 278 — Trump, 169 — Toss-up, 91

270toWin polling map (updated three times daily): Biden, 255 — Trump, 119 — Toss-up, 164

270toWin polling with no toss-ups (updated three times daily): Biden, 353 — Trump, 185

CNN (last updated Sept. 20): Biden, 269 — Trump, 169 — Toss-up, 100

Cook Political Report (last updated Sept. 17): Biden, 290 — Trump, 187 — Toss-up, 61

The Economist (updated twice daily): Biden, 308 — Trump, 188 — Toss-up, 42

FiveThirtyEight (updated every two hours): Biden, 279 — Trump, 163 — Toss-up, 96

Inside Elections (last updated Sept. 18): Biden, 319 — Trump, 187 — Toss-up, 32

Niskanen Center (last updated Sept. 15): Biden, 318 — Trump, 123 — Toss-up, 97

NPR (last updated Sept. 16): Biden, 268 — Trump, 169 — Toss-up, 101

Politico (last updated Sept. 8): Biden, 268 — Trump 203 — Toss-up, 67

PredictIt (updated every four hours): Biden, 290 — Trump, 248 — Toss-up, none*

Princeton Election Consortium: Biden, 353 — Trump, 163 — Toss-up, 22

RealClearPolitics (last updated Sept. 14): Biden, 222 — Trump, 125 — Toss-up, 191

Sabato’s Crystal Ball (last updated Sept. 21): Biden, 269 — Trump, 203 — Toss-up, 66

U.S. News (last updated July 9): Biden, 278 — Trump, 186 — Toss-up, 74

*PredictIt doesn’t do toss-ups except for equal results, while most other sites define toss-ups as difference between candidates falling within 5 percentage points

Where does Georgia stand

This past week may have been when Georgia shifted from being a battleground state to the battleground state.

Eleven of the models now show the Peach State up for grabs. But you don’t need an algorithm to figure that out. Just check the travel of the president and other key members of his campaign. Trump was in metro Atlanta last week, and this week Vice President Mike Pence will make his third visit to the region in the past few months. Three of Trump’s children have also journeyed recently to Georgia.

Georgia also figures prominently in what FiveThirtyEight calls a “snake chart” — an illustration on its website depicting the states in various shades of red and blue that winds from the top to the bottom with segments divided in lengths proportional to the size to their clout in the Electoral College. Georgia is now the last of the red states on Trump’s end of the snake before it changes to blue. Ohio held that position until late last week when FiveThirtyEight moved it into Biden territory.

What are the other toss-up states?

On its consensus map, 270toWin shows no change on toss-up states. Its list of battlegrounds, in addition to Georgia, still remains short, with just Florida (29 Electoral College votes), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11). Also up for grabs are one congressional district each in Maine and Nebraska. All those states voted for Trump in 2016.

RealClearPolitics still lists nearly a quarter of the states as toss-ups. Besides Georgia, still up for grabs are: Texas (38), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4), plus the individual congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Only two of those toss-up states — New Hampshire and Nevada — did not vote for Trump in 2016.