It is worth remembering that decades ago, before Jerry Falwell brought them into the GOP fold, Southern Baptists were a standoffish people.
As a denomination, they kept themselves separate. Baptists eschewed not just politics, but most ecumenical alliances – because of the compromise that collaboration could require.
They personified the unscriptural phrase, “I’d rather be right than president.” And while now Southern Baptists are major players in national Republican politics, at bottom they haven’t changed much.
Today, they’d rather be right than elect a president. And if you’re a Republican with an eye on the White House, that’s a problem.
It would be the height of folly to write off SB 129, Georgia's religious liberty bill, as dead before state lawmakers abandon Atlanta tonight.
Regardless, the issue will live on. Because Southern Baptists, who have been at the heart of this year’s religious liberty push in the Legislature, are also the heart of the evangelical Christian wing of the Republican party – especially in the all-important South.
The U.S. Supreme Court will take up the gay marriage issue this month, which will only intensify evangelical efforts to create a legal carve-out for those who fear being tainted by same-sex unions. Whether by baking a cake, arranging a bouquet of flowers, or merely serving a couple on a first date.
The issue is likely to be front-and-center at the state GOP convention in May. Already, Republican officialdom is attempting to turn the Athens gathering into a cattle call for 2016 presidential candidates, who in recent days have begun rehearsing their answers to the inevitable question.
Candidates from Jeb Bush to Marco Rubio to Ted Cruz have already endorsed the creation of the free-faith zone envisioned by backers of religious liberty legislation.
But that was before two Republican governors, Mike Pence in Indiana and Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas, backed down and asked lawmakers in their states to amend their religious liberty measures with language to bar marketplace discrimination.
The uproar from the business community in each state was overwhelming. If you’re a GOP governor without Wal-Mart or NASCAR on your side, you’ve already lost. In Georgia, Gov. Nathan Deal has endorsed SB 129 or something like it, but even he has had to worry whether a similar eruption here would damage the state’s current pursuit of a new Volvo auto manufacturing plant.
Like a California fault line, the rift between the evangelical wing of the GOP and its chamber-of-commerce partner has opened in a way both sudden and deep.
On Monday, the top ethicist for the Southern Baptist Convention, Russell Moore, appeared on MSNBC’s “Hardball with Chris Matthews” to discuss the Hoosier situation – Arkansas had yet to explode.
“I think it’s a confluence of sexual libertarianism and crony capitalism in a way that is trying to bully the state of Indiana into backing down from protecting basic religious liberties,” Moore said.
Business types will blanch at being described as crony capitalists. But not as much as a Republican presidential candidate will want to avoid being tagged as a sexual libertarian – at least, not until after a July convention in Cleveland.
Because, given this nation’s rapidly changing attitude toward gay marriage, the winner of the general election for president is very likely to be one.
But any shift by a GOP candidate would be a complicated one. And a shift among evangelicals may be even more far-fetched. On this issue in particular, they have shown little willingness to compromise for the sake of a larger alliance. The result could be an extended Republican nomination process, despite efforts to make it shorter and smoother than in 2012.
As usual, caucuses in Iowa will kick off next year’s electoral season. Pew Research’s Religion and Public Life Project put that state’s evangelical Protestant population at 24 percent, but they dominate GOP politics there.
South Carolina (45 percent evangelical Protestant) bows in a few weeks later. And very quickly after that, on March 1, you’ll have the “SEC primary” that Secretary of State Brian Kemp is putting together.
Georgia (38 percent) and Tennessee (51 percent) have committed to the date. Legislation to join them has been introduced in Alabama (49 percent), Arkansas (53 percent) and Mississippi (47 percent).
Moreover, in Georgia, the Legislature will still be in session next March 1. And if it doesn’t move today, state Sen. Josh McKoon’s SB 129 will still be very much alive.
No, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which, come the spring of 2016, we’re not debating Religious Liberty, Part III.
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