GOP debates
Because of the large field, there are two Republican presidential debates Thursday. Here are the participants, ranked by their standing in national polls:
The main event (9 p.m., Fox News)
1. Businessman Donald Trump
2. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush
3. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker
4. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
5. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
6. Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz
7. Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio
8. Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul
9. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
10. Ohio Gov. John Kasich
The undercard (5 p.m. Fox News)
1. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry
2. Former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum
3. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
4. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina
5. South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham
6. Former New York Gov. George Pataki
7. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore
Campaign trail runs through Atlanta
The race for the White House enters a crucial stage this week with the first GOP debate Thursday night in Ohio, followed by Atlanta’s own RedState Gathering on Friday and Saturday in Buckhead, featuring 10 Republican candidates. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will deploy a staff of nine political reporters and editors plus three columnists to bring you instant coverage on ajc.com, MyAJC.com and Twitter, including photos and video from behind the scenes.
Look for these stories in the paper:
- Friday: The large field of GOP presidential candidates square off in debate. Who was the most appealing to viewers?
- Saturday: Who made the biggest and best impressions during the first day of the RedState Gathering?
- Sunday: The spotlight shines on GOP front-runner Donald Trump, but other candidates also got to make their pitches.
For a brief moment this weekend, Georgia will top Iowa as the prime destination for Republicans running for president, as 10 hopefuls will court conservative activists in Buckhead and make other stops in the state.
The RedState Gathering comes at the expense of the now-deceased quadrennial carnival called the Iowa Straw Poll, and it follows Thursday night’s first GOP debate, as the race for the White House enters an accelerated phase.
Weep not for Iowa and New Hampshire, as the early states will retain their power to winnow the 17-candidate GOP field.
But particularly in the age of the unlimited-money super PAC, Georgia and other “SEC primary” states voting March 1 hold a crucial role. And the national polls have taken on more early significance, as they decide which 10 candidates make the main debate stage.
“It’s been an unusual and unprecedented dual-track campaign so far,” said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who is working with a super PAC allied with Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
The early-state angst is derived from the debate structure. Fox News selected 10 Republicans to appear in prime time Thursday and relegated the other seven to the so-called kids’ table debate based on their standing in a handful of national polls.
Iowans and New Hampshirites who get more opportunities to know the candidates say their views should hold more sway in who gets to debate because national poll standing relies more on who is best-known than most-liked.
"We don't nominate our candidates on a national basis, and so why on Earth we would create a debate criteria based on a national process is beyond me," said Craig Robinson, the former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, who now runs the news website The Iowa Republican.
The emphasis on polls altered the strategies of those on the bubble of the top 10. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry positioned himself as the most aggressive foil to businessman Donald Trump — the polling leader who has sucked up all the attention lately. But Perry’s strategy fell short, as Ohio Gov. John Kasich narrowly beat him out for the 10th prime-time spot in part by spending millions on television ads.
The early states tried to wrest some attention back with their own forum Monday in Manchester, N.H., that attracted 14 candidates.
University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala said the turnout showed the state’s drawing power is undiminished. In fact, he said, so many GOP candidates ceded the state to Mitt Romney in 2012 that there has been much more attention this time around.
“Candidates don’t care about the sanctity of the first-in-the-nation primary,” Scala said. “What they care about is winning. Four years ago, they didn’t think they could win (against Romney). … Local elites have more leverage than they did four years ago.”
The early states remain a crucial proving ground for lesser-known candidates. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina opened her Manchester forum appearance by thanking the publisher of the New Hampshire Union-Leader, who hosted the event.
“Thank you, Joe McQuaid, as well, for reminding the political class that we don’t have a national primary and managing to get all of the candidates here to the first-in-the-nation primary state,” Fiorina said.
Multicandidate forums and cattle calls have mushroomed this year, as the Republican National Committee moved to limit the number of debates.
“The candidates have almost uniformly accepted, it seems to me, because it looks like a free opportunity to make their case,” Conway said. “There will probably be national media there.”
That leads to RedState’s tug of war with the Iowa Straw Poll.
The straw poll has been a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, dating to 1979, in which presidential candidates pay for tent space at the state fair and then bus in supporters to vote. It is seen as an early test of a campaign’s organizational strength, and poor showings have forced candidates out of the race.
Since 2009, RedState blog editor and News 95.5 & AM 750 WSB host Erick Erickson has held a gathering for conservative activists. Perry announced his first presidential campaign at the 2011 gathering in South Carolina, stealing some attention from the straw poll on the same day.
This time, the key move was Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker deciding he would rather go to Atlanta than Boone, Iowa. The Midwesterner is expected to compete hard in the Iowa caucuses, but the straw poll allowed only a few thousand people to drive huge media coverage and expectations-setting.
Once Walker decided not to participate, said Robinson of The Iowa Republican, the rest of the campaigns followed suit. The state party announced in June that the straw poll was canceled.
“It forces all the campaigns to push all their chips in the middle of the table in August,” Robinson said. “There’s a lot to risk and not a whole lot to gain. We’ve known that for years in Iowa. Now we have life without the straw poll, and it ain’t so bad.”
Iowa’s loss this weekend is Georgia’s gain, and the effect will be felt throughout the state.
Cruz is holding Friday and Saturday events in Savannah, Newnan and Midland. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will stop by a GOP fish fry in Perry on Saturday. Walker plans a Saturday lunch stop at Lovies BBQ in Atlanta. Perry and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., are throwing Atlanta fundraisers.
Trump will close the RedState Gathering on Saturday night at the College Football Hall of Fame in downtown Atlanta.
Erickson said part of his pitch was that candidates would have to spend big money for straw poll space, while his event is free of charge to the candidates.
“There are people giving me credit,” Erickson said. “They should probably give more credit to (Fox News head) Roger Ailes than me — putting the debate that week and setting the criteria for it. That they had to spend nationally to raise name ID. They couldn’t just focus on Iowa.”
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