Georgia’s biggest swing districts still haven’t tipped their hands

And those sections — call them the swingiest of Georgia’s swing districts — could decide not only the state’s tight presidential race but also the elections down the ballot.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution visited five state House districts scattered across Georgia where the race for the White House seems the tightest.

They are:

In Carter country, a distaste for both candidates

BUENA VISTA — Traffic slows along the two-lane highways of southwest Georgia as tractors and combines traipse from field to field harvesting cotton and peanuts. A meandering, 125-mile drive from Columbus through Buena Vista, Ellaville, Plains and Americus affords enough time to read the many campaign signs for county commission, sheriff and coroner candidates.

Surprisingly, only one placard — “Farmers for Trump” along Ga. 30 — touts either presidential candidate.

Political pulse-taking via campaign sign is a decidedly imprecise way to determine whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will prevail in House District 138. Yet interviews with local voters, and the district’s renown for tight races, portrays a too-close-to-call election amplified by many unhappy and reluctant voters

With polls showing the presidential contest in Georgia a dead heat, tossup districts like the 138th could determine who carries the Peach State. A disheartened electorate that may stay home Nov. 8 could also affect down-ballot races.

Republicans, turned off by Trump’s bombast and treatment of women, may vote Democrat or not at all. Democrats, particularly men, may decide they can’t support Clinton. And African-American voters, without an inspiring Barack Obama atop the ballot, may avoid the trek to the polling station.

“A lot of people are not going to vote because they don’t like either one,” said Sylvia Carter, 50, who owns Soul’s Cafe in Buena Vista and will vote for Clinton. “That’s not good. Everybody’s got to get out and vote for somebody, regardless.”

Obama bested Mitt Romney by the slightest of margins in 2012 in the district where whites fall just short of 50 percent of the population. Former President Jimmy Carter — the dean of Georgia Democrats — lives in Plains, a 25-mile jog south of Buena Vista.

Yet the district's statehouse representative, Mike Cheokas, is a Republican. He used to be a Democrat but switched parties in 2010. He walks a political tightrope every two years — he won by 2 percentage points in 2012, 4 in 2014 — and this year could be his toughest race yet.

But he’s got Melanie Harralson’s vote. So does Trump.

“I don’t think that a woman should be president. We are in the Bible Belt. A man should be in charge. We are the helpmates,” said Harralson, 44, who owns Pea Ridge and Co., a gift shop in Buena Vista. “Trump is the lesser of two evils. (And) he’s business-minded. He will surround himself with enough good people to guide him in the right direction.”

Elections in District 138 are typically won or lost in Schley (pronounced “sly”) County, where three of every four residents are white. In 2012, for example, Cheokas lost Chattahoochee, Marion and Sumter counties but won handily in Schley. Two years ago, he garnered three times as many votes in Schley as his opponent.

Kay McCarty, 53, who works at her family’s flower shop in the county seat of Ellaville, will vote for Cheokas and Trump, “who’s not a real politician.” Jerry Cook, a 51-year-old financial officer for a paint manufacturer, will vote for Clinton because “she’s predictable,” though he wishes for a viable third-party candidate.

Jason Hoch, the quality control manager for an Ellaville factory, is undecided. He likes that Trump is a businessman but is wary of the Republican’s past business dealings. He knows what he’ll get with a Clinton presidency. Neither candidate, though, inspires.

“We’ve got 318 million Americans and those are the two to choose from?” said Hoch, 43. “But voting is a God-given right, and everybody who can vote should vote. I might not decide until I get in the voting booth.”

— Dan Chapman

Turnout key in independent’s district

MILLEDGEVILLE — The Middle Georgia district that stretches from a leafy college campus to the now-dismantled towers of a coal-fired power plant might just be the most politically divided area in the state.

House District 145 is so split that a mere three-hundredths of a percentage point separated the presidential candidates in 2012. It’s so split that it’s the only district in modern Georgia history to elect — and then re-elect — an independent candidate to the state Legislature.

And judging by interviews with more than a dozen residents in this conflicted patch of land, voters are just as torn over next month’s election between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Consider the take from Kinaji Lawrence, an 18-year-old student who backs Clinton — but made clear his enthusiasm for her is decidedly tepid.

“I will probably vote for her due to the fact that she’s a bit better than everyone else,” said Lawrence, who said he liked Clinton’s higher education plan.

“Trump is a good person, and I see that he’s educated and smart,” he said with a shrug. “But I don’t believe in his ways.”

The split decision is trickling down to the race to replace state Rep. Rusty Kidd, the independent who retired for medical reasons. That contest pits two funeral home owners, Republican Ricky Williams and Democrat Floyd Griffin, against each other.

Many voters indicated they planned to vote straight-ticket Republican or Democrat, which means whichever presidential candidate carries the district is likely to also bring the statehouse seat.

At his downtown office, Kidd rattles off statistics about his soon-to-be-former district’s perpetual divide.

“This election is divided as ever, and so is this district,” Kidd said. “The majority of people who are going to vote are holding their nose.”

As for Kidd, who was a Democrat for 40 years before becoming an independent, that nasal-cringing vote is going for Trump. But he has no clue how the swingiest of Georgia’s swing districts will decide.

“My district will split. Black voters will back Hillary. And the white voters — they outnumber the others by 3,386 — will mostly back Trump,” he said. “So it all comes down to how many people will turn out.”

Which means it comes down to people like Bill Massey, who owns Middle Georgia Cards and Coins. Ask him about his thoughts on the election, and he’ll spit a poem your way.

“Roses are red. Violets are blue. Your candidate stinks and mine does, too,” said Massey, with a well-worn patience that suggested he’s had plenty of practice reciting the lines. “For the first time in my life, I wouldn’t give 10 cents for either one of them.”

His biggest question might not even be whom he picks. It might be whether he even shows up to the polls.

“I haven’t even decided if I vote yet,” he said. “I’ll have to wake up that morning and decide. But I don’t see that it will even matter. I don’t trust anything either of them will do.”

— Greg Bluestein

Split tickets common in South Georgia district

DAWSON — This stretch of southwest Georgia farmland is the thorn in the side of Democrats. That’s because election after election, House District 151 defies political logic.

The majority-black district voted overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama in 2012. Yet voters keep returning Republican state Rep. Gerald Greene to the Capitol.

And though Democrat Hillary Clinton is likely to carry the area next month over Donald Trump, interviews with voters across the district suggest the split-ticket mentality is deeply rooted.

Meet Tye Lewis, a 25-year-old with three kids and two jobs — one working retail at a downtown Dawson clothing store and another in housekeeping at the local hospital. Her husband, Quintrell, works in sanitation and drives trucks on weekends.

And, she laments on a recent afternoon, no matter how hard they work, they can’t escape the feeling that they’re slipping behind. They don’t have money for the vacations they enjoyed when they were growing up; they barely make enough to cover expenses.

Her pick for president boils down to a sole concern: “making more money.”

“I love Hillary. She’s an awesome lady. All around respectable. But I’m ready to see something different,” Lewis said. “I know he’s a jerk. But what we’ve been doing isn’t working. We need to start making some big changes.”

Still, others see a Clinton victory as a harbinger of the booming 1990s her husband, Bill Clinton, presided over while in the White House. Christina Coleman, who works at a nearby poultry plant, said Bill Clinton is the main reason she cast an early ballot for his wife last week.

“She’s done a good job and so did her husband,” Coleman said, browsing in a beauty shop. “Besides, Trump acts too crazy for me. He’s got something going on.”

She, too, worries about the area’s economy. But jobs are plentiful, if not high-paying, thanks to a growing poultry business. And she said she’s no fan of the negativity she hears from Trump and other Republican candidates.

“We are doing all right,” she said. “I don’t even pay attention to all the talk. My mind is made up.”

She probably would have voted for Greene’s Democratic opponent, too, if he had one. But a controversial ruling seems to have saved him for another election.

Democrats recruited James Williams, a retired law enforcement officer, to challenge Greene this cycle. But he was disqualified due to a redistricting error that showed he actually lives in a different district.

The party instead is relying on Kenneth Zachary, a pastor who is running as an independent backed by Democratic leaders. Greene, himself a former Democrat who flipped to the GOP six years ago, has support from Republican heavyweights and decades of experience at the Capitol. He was first elected in 1982.

Vickie Coleman doesn’t hesitate to say she’ll back Greene next month. He was her social studies teacher, after all. But ask her about the presidential election, and you get a torrent.

“It would take me forever to tell you all my thoughts,” she said. “But I’ll boil it down: I am leaning toward Trump and I don’t like Hillary.”

Vickie Coleman, no relation to Christina Coleman, is making a complicated tradeoff with her decision. She’s willing to forgive Trump for some of his more egregious comments — his boasting about groping women, his crude language — for his promise of a better future for her daughters.

“I want to get our nation back on our feet. South Georgia is hurting, and I’ve got friends without jobs,” she said. “And the problem is immigration. Our country will let anyone and everyone in. And the Republicans, they can help fix it.”

— Greg Bluestein

Romney won here, but so did a Democrat

BROOKHAVEN — By most political metrics, House District 80 should not be competitive.

The suburban Atlanta district, famous for its shopping and traffic, has a voting-age population that is more than 85 percent white. Voters here backed Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race, and Republicans David Perdue and Nathan Deal for U.S. senator and governor, respectively, two years ago.

All of which appears to make Taylor Bennett the accidental incumbent.

Bennett, a Democrat, won the state House District 80 seat in a special election in 2015 after Republican Mike Jacobs resigned to take a judgeship. Bennett defeated Brookhaven's former mayor, J. Max Davis, 55 percent to 45 percent in an August runoff after finishing first in a four-way race.

Bennett campaigned on a promise to fight the "religious liberty" bills that conservatives in the General Assembly pursued, and he noted that it was Jacobs who helped stop the measure late in the 2015 legislative session.

Now, the former Georgia Tech football star is looking to hold onto the seat against Republican Meagan Hanson. Both say they would oppose “religious liberty” bills if elected.

Loren Collins ran for the seat as a Republican in the July 2015 special election, finishing fourth. Today, he’s backing the Democrat.

When it comes to the presidential race, Collins repeats a thought many here expressed when asked about the campaign: “My main interest, however I vote, is I don’t want to see Donald Trump win.”

But Collins, an attorney, doesn’t know that he can vote for Hillary Clinton, either.

Chris Lynch of Sandy Springs, part of which is also in District 80, feels the same way. Shopping one day last week with his son, Michael, Lynch said he hasn’t decided how he’ll vote.

“I don’t like either of my choices, honestly,” the financial consultant said, adding that he hopes Republicans maintain control of Congress.

He’s worried about the economy. His clients are hurting, he said, as shareholders and investors struggle with the slow growth of the economy.

“Business is not good,” Lynch said.

Hannah Amoah of Brookhaven has no problem declaring her intentions to vote for Clinton.

“It’s an easy choice,” she said.

But she’s not a big Clinton fan.

“I don’t love her at all, but the alternative is so awful I can’t sit back and let it happen,” Amoah, a lawyer, said as she sat outside a Brookhaven cafe with her dog, Booker T.

Across the green space at Town Brookhaven, the upscale shopping and dining center near City Hall, Kelsey Rist is Amoah’s counterweight in the election.

“I’m on the Trump train for sure,” Rist said.

Rist, a recent graduate of Ole Miss, declared herself a feminist and said she has no problem reconciling that with her decision to back Trump.

“Feminism is so simple,” she said. “You want equality for men and women. More people are feminists and don’t even know it. (Trump) said some things that are not OK. But Hillary has done bad things, too. He has changed as a person.”

— Aaron Gould Sheinin

Tough choices at top mean tough choices down ballot

LAWRENCEVILLE — The district that covers a wide swath of Gwinnett County’s relatively rural southeastern corner — plus the city of Grayson and a chunks of both incorporated and unincorporated Lawrenceville — is one of the most evenly split in Georgia.

House District 105 voted for Barack Obama by a slim 50.77 percent to 48.36 percent in 2012, but it is held by Republican state Rep. Joyce Chandler. Whites make up only about 43 percent of its population, making it one of the most diverse districts in the state held by a Republican, and slight changes to the district made it more GOP friendly.

A handful of residents interviewed this week had equally diverse opinions about the country’s major-party presidential nominees, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Joseph Vega, a native of Puerto Rico, has only lived in District 105 for a few months. The retiree has voted for Barack Obama and fancies himself an independent — but he said he’s backing Trump.

Vega said the GOP nominee hasn’t “portrayed himself” well at times, but he praised Trump’s business acumen.

“The economy the way it’s going,” he said, leaning on a walking stick in Lawrenceville’s scenic Tribble Mill Park, “I just think that we need some kind of change.”

That doesn’t mean it’s been an easy decision. Just ask his wife.

“She hates it when I talk about Trump,” a laughing Vega said. “Because let me tell you something: Women really hate Trump.”

Ray and Rose Harden had an equally hard time choosing between the candidates — but both cast early votes for Clinton.

“To me, both of the candidates are scary,” said Ray Harden, a military veteran. “And both of them don’t care nothing about the people. Everybody’s blowing smoke.”

While Harden said he voted for “a lot of Republicans and Democrats” down the ballot, many residents of the torn district said they weren’t overly familiar with the local races. That could lend itself to difficult presidential choices guiding the results of other races — like the one pitting House 105 incumbent Chandler, a Republican, against Democratic challenger Donna McLeod.

Then again, there are also people like Lisa Johnson, who traditionally leans Republican but has opted to go “write-in” for president and “looking more at issues” for other races.

Said Johnson, “I’m not a party ticket kind of girl this year.”

— Tyler Estep