For Georgia’s Deal, a pivotal year begins in his governorship

Hard economic times allowed leaders to put off major debates over education and transportation policy to focus on shorter-term fixes, but policy fights over those issues now loom larger than ever. Voters, advocacy groups and powerful corporate interests are pressing for concrete action before another election year arrives.

For Deal, it may be the best chance he’ll have to push his agenda. Fresh off a convincing victory, the 72-year-old still retains ample political capital, a resource that will become increasingly scarce as his term winds down and the jockeying to replace him ratchets up.

“This first year is going to be key,” said Kerwin Swint, a Kennesaw State University political scientist. “If he has some success, he can avoid becoming a lame duck in subsequent years. But if nothing much happens, he’ll inherit that status sooner.”

It will be a busy year. Deal plans a multiyear push to overhaul Georgia’s education funding system and backs a muscular change in education policy to give the state new powers to take over struggling schools. Meanwhile, a polarizing debate is expected over how to raise new transportation revenue.

And, as always, one of the governor’s toughest tasks will be balancing the needs and demands of an array of forces who want a bigger slice of Georgia’s improving budget.

He’ll have an added advantage that he has never before known in four decades of public service. He has vowed this is his last stint in public office. That gives him more freedom to make unpopular decisions, such as advocating new taxes for road improvements, without fear of a backlash at the ballot box.

All the while, the second term of his predecessor, Sonny Perdue, likely won’t be far from his mind. Perdue was able to lock down many of his legacy initiatives in his final four years in office, but he alienated many GOP lawmakers during that term.

“Perdue remained popular with the public, but the group in the state of Georgia who liked him the least were Republican legislators,” University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said. “And one of the lessons Deal has seemed to learn from that is he shows legislators a degree of respect that others never did.”

Deal launched a charm offensive with Republican lawmakers late in the campaign, promising their support would not be forgotten. They have good reason to keep him happy, and successful, so he can raise funds for them and the GOP through 2018. The governor has also pledged to maintain ties with Democrats over the next four years.

“I’ve always had an open-door relationship with the governor,” said state Rep. Calvin Smyre, a veteran Democrat. “And this is a great opportunity for all of us to work together in the beginning of a four-year term. He has the power and bully pulpit to set the tone, and I hope we can continue to work with him.”

There’s also legacy at stake as Deal looks to how he’ll be remembered in the history books. Even his staunchest critics are loath to criticize his criminal justice overhaul, which has helped save corrections costs and keep thousands of low-level offenders out of prison.

He’s also talked of the need to steer the Republican strategy on a new course to embrace more minorities as Georgia’s proportion of white voters — a bloc that overwhelmingly favors the GOP — shrinks. With exit polls showing black support of Deal and other leading GOP officials barely cracking double digits, he has his work cut out for him.

Some critics say he’s more likely to be remembered as a governor who refused to expand Medicaid, which would have brought health care coverage to an estimated 600,000 uninsured Georgians. Changing his mind alone won’t be enough: Deal signed a law last year that takes the power to expand Medicaid away from the governor and gives it to the General Assembly.

These long-term goals will have to be balanced with short-term necessities.

Deal’s campaign vows include a particularly vexing one that’s sure to drag on for several years. He promised to rework an education funding formula that has gone largely untouched since it passed two decades ago. The process began in earnest last week with the first of a series of meetings by an advisory panel of school administrators and teachers.

He will begin an aggressive campaign this week to push a constitutional amendment to create an opportunity school district that gives the state the power to shutter failing schools, take it over or transition it into a charter school.

Much of the rest of his energy may yet end up devoted to shepherding the latest debate over Georgia’s mounting transportation needs. A long-awaited state report released in December suggested a mix of tax increases and new fees were needed to raise a minimum of $1 billion to $1.5 billion in new money to ward off what’s billed as a growing infrastructure crisis.

Deal has yet to stake out a firm position on the debate, though his aides say he is generally supportive of the need for new revenue. Just how Deal and lawmakers agree to do so will be a defining question of the legislative session that begins Monday. He has had no shortage of advice.

“He needs to focus on what is best for the state, and that goes back to the transportation debate. If he focuses on the good and the welfare of the state of Georgia as a whole, he’ll keep his political capital intact,” said George Hooks, a legislative historian who served 32 years as a Democrat in the state Senate.

Former House Speaker Glenn Richardson offered his own dose of advice. The onetime GOP leader, speaking from his Paulding County law office, takes a more philosophical view of politics since leaving office.

“It’s a thankless job, bless his heart,” Richardson said. “He’s got to make the decisions and moves he thinks are best for the state — and stick with them.”