AJC on the trail
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is closely tracking the presidential campaign across the country, with a special emphasis on the South. Today is a big day for voters in Georgia and 11 others states who will get their chance to weigh in on the Democratic and Republican races. To see past campaign stories, go to MyAJC.com.
Voters in Georgia will cast their ballots Tuesday in the presidential primary as Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump look to leverage their leads — and their rivals try to stop their marches to nomination.
Georgia offers the second-biggest delegate haul of the dozen states holding votes Tuesday, trailing only Texas in clout on Super Tuesday. But it’s arguably the most important state in the day’s Republican contest, since Texas is also the home of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who is favored to carry the state.
Polls show that both Clinton and Trump have sizable advantages in Georgia. A Channel 2 Action News poll released Monday has Clinton with a nearly 50-point lead over Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has shifted his resources to states in the Midwest and Northeast. In the same survey, Trump leads a crowded field with nearly 40 percent of the vote.
Georgia is at the center of the sweep of seven Southern states that will hold votes Tuesday. Engineered by Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp as the “SEC primary,” the regional vote was seen as a way to give the South added clout in the presidential contest. But a range of other states from Alaska to Vermont will also vote, magnifying the day’s impact.
The wildly unpredictable contest is expected to boost turnout Tuesday. More than 400,000 Georgians have already cast ballots for the presidential election through in-person early voting, smashing the state's record set eight years ago. The brunt of those ballots, more than 240,000, were cast in the Republican race.
Kemp said the early numbers point to a strong turnout Tuesday, thanks partly to a recent surge of visits by presidential candidates. Each of the top contenders for the White House has visited Georgia over the past two weeks, eager for a chunk of the state’s delegate bounty.
Georgia awards 102 delegates in the Democratic race and 76 in the GOP contest. (There are also an additional 15 Democratic super delegates - party elites who can support anyone they wish.) It’s part of a massive haul that’s up for grabs in a dozen states — roughly 25 percent of the GOP delegates and one-fifth of the Democratic delegates will be determined Tuesday by voters.
Trump, the Republican front-runner, is taking no chances in Georgia.
He attracted more than 6,300 people to a downtown Atlanta rally last week, and he returned Monday for an event at Valdosta State University.
The rowdy, at-capacity crowd of 7,500 in the university’s basketball arena, held up signs saying “build that wall” and “the silent majority stands with Trump.” It cheered so loudly when Trump said he would scrap Obamacare and Common Core that the bleachers shook.
“Every single online poll, every single event I’ve been No. 1,” he told the crowd.
In Atlanta, Trump’s supporters include Cherie Edgecomb, who hasn’t actively engaged in a campaign since 1984, when she backed Ronald Reagan. She’s volunteering again this year, though, by knocking on doors and making calls for Trump.
“He’s not the establishment. And I’m just fed up,” she said as she waited to hear the candidate last week. “Everything that is wrong with our country — he will turn it around. He’s going to turn it around.”
Georgia’s Republican “winner-takes-most” delegate rules, though, also offer incentives for also-rans. Candidates can only get delegates if they reach 20 percent of the vote or if they finish first or second in one of Georgia’s 14 congressional districts. That’s why the race for second place — and to clear the 20 percent threshold — may be the most intriguing to watch.
Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is locked with Cruz in a bitter battle for the spot. Rubio, who has visited Georgia twice over the past three days, has stepped up his attacks on Trump in recent weeks to try to emerge as the billionaire’s mainstream alternative. And he’s eyeing the vote-rich metro Atlanta counties and more moderate coastal areas around Savannah in particular.
Speaking to a crowd of more than 1,000 in an Atlanta hotel on Monday, he cast Trump as a "con artist" who is trying to fool Republicans with false promises and blustering exaggerations. He conceded he may not win any states on Tuesday, but he said he hopes to pick up enough delegates to stay competitive.
“A vote for Donald Trump tomorrow,” he said Monday, “is a vote for Hillary Clinton in November.”
Cruz, who stopped in Atlanta on Saturday, has boasted that the religious conservatives in Georgia and other Deep South states are his “firewall,” but exit polls show Trump and Rubio are siphoning off evangelicals from his camp. The Channel 2 poll has him in third place with 15 percent support in Georgia — a precarious spot for the tea party firebrand.
His campaign is competing with Trump for supremacy in North Georgia, where there is a deep well of support for anti-establishment candidates. His supporters, meanwhile, are focusing on electability.
“He’s the only guy in the Republican Party left who can beat Trump at this point,” said former U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, who endorsed the Texas lawmaker this month. “You’ll have a good showing on Tuesday. He’s going to win Texas. He’s competitive in Arkansas and Oklahoma. And we’ll get the votes here to get to the 20 percent threshold.”
Ohio Gov. John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson have also journeyed to Georgia in the past week, trying to sway undecided voters. Both, however, lag far behind the other three contenders in recent surveys of Peach State voters.
The less-crowded Democratic contest in Georgia is also less complicated.
Clinton’s rout of Sanders in South Carolina on Saturday was a good omen for her campaign in Georgia, which has a similar Democratic electorate to its neighbor. African-American voters make up the brunt of the party’s base in both states, and exit polls show Sanders has struggled to connect with them.
Sanders’ campaign hopes to keep it closer than the nearly 50-point spread that doomed him in South Carolina. To do so, he needs to win over the bulk of white voters while cutting some of Clinton’s margins in DeKalb and Fulton counties. State Sen. Vincent Fort, who flipped from Clinton to Sanders two weeks ago, said the Vermont lawmaker could surprise some.
“Bernie’s going to do better than expected,” Fort said. “What that number is, I’m not sure. But he’s going to do better than expected.
“He’s come a mighty long way, and I know that Bernie Sanders has changed progressive Democratic politics forever.”
Clinton’s supporters are supremely confident. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, who appeared with Clinton at a rally Friday at City Hall, predicted flatly that Sanders would be clobbered in Georgia.
“Stop treating Bernie Sanders like he’s something special,” Reed said at a recent press conference. “He’s not going to be the nominee.”
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