The history of HOPE can be told through the nearly two decades of newspaper headlines about the popular scholarship program: “Gov. Miller gives students HOPE,” “More students getting HOPE,” “HOPE running out” and “Can we keep HOPE alive?”
There’s one headline that no one in Georgia ever wants to see: “HOPE is gone.”
A victim of its own success, soaring tuitions and improved college attendance, the HOPE scholarship is running out of money. More than 256,000 students received a HOPE benefit last year, compared with fewer than 200,000 a decade ago.
The Georgia Lottery cannot keep up with both HOPE and pre-k, and lawmakers have been scrambling to come up with solutions.
The problem is that they haven’t yet defined their goals, which ought to be the first step in any business model.
Studies have found that only 4 percent of the money spent on HOPE goes to students who might not otherwise have gone to college.
Would the state gain more from its investment if it instead targeted HOPE to students for whom the money plays a pivotal role in whether they go to college?
It’s a tough question, but one that needs to be asked and answered before any more changes are made to HOPE.
Facing a crisis last year, Gov. Nathan Deal made drastic and controversial changes to HOPE, and those changes were retrofitted to students already in college. For most recipients, HOPE tuition payments fell 10 to 15 percent because of Deal’s reforms.
There are a rash of bills this year to address deficiencies in the governor’s solution. And there are flaws in the Deal fix that should be addressed, including the new higher tier of HOPE recipients, the Zell Miller scholars, that the governor added. But the state first has to do soul-searching.
Today, HOPE has its largest influence on where students go to college, not whether they go.
Over the years, HOPE has been altered to serve the needs of middle-income students over their low-income peers. HOPE began in 1993 as a carrot to push more low- and moderate-income, high-achieving students on the path to college. In its inaugural year, HOPE went only to Georgia students from households earning $66,000 or less.
Now, there is no income cap, so even Georgia’s wealthiest families qualify for the scholarship, essentially shifting the focus away from increasing college access for lower-income students.
And that access is critical. Today, about 42 percent of young adults in Georgia hold a certificate, associate’s degree, bachelor’s degree or higher. Yet, economic studies forecast that by 2020, 60 percent of all jobs in the state will require some form of postsecondary education.
The Legislature is debating HOPE within an education framework in which one student’s merit is pitted against another student’s need.
From a state policy perspective, that’s the wrong framework. The discussion ought to be cast in purely economic terms and begin with a straightforward question that any business would ask: Are we getting our money’s worth out of our mounting investment in HOPE?
Yes, HOPE benefits individual families and children, but is easing the college burden for middle-class Georgians a greater priority than broadening the future workforce?
The quality and depth of that future workforce will play a critical role in determining whether Georgia leads or lags in the 21st century.
By the numbers
According to current estimates, the HOPE scholarship award will drop starting in mid-2013 while the Zell Miller Scholarship will increase because it promises to cover all tuition costs.
A HOPE student at the University of Georgia currently receives $3,182 a semester.
That is projected to fall to $2,720 by mid-2013, and to $2,461 by mid-2015.
At the same time, tuition at UGA — now $3,641 a semester — is projected to increase.
Maureen Downey, for the Editorial Board
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