Donald Trump still leads polls in the states that open the 2016 Republican presidential contest — Iowa and New Hampshire — but the margins have shrunk some in the past month, according to new surveys.
Trump has 24% in Iowa while another “outsider” candidate, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, is second at 19%, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.
“A month ago, Trump’s lead over Carson in Iowa was seven points in the same poll, 29% to 22%,” NBC News reported.
A third candidate with no previous elected experience, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, is third in Iowa with 8%, according to the poll, followed by Jeb Bush (7%), Ted Cruz (6%), Marco Rubio (6%), and Bobby Jindal (6%).
The Iowa caucuses open the 2016 election season next February.
In New Hampshire, Trump leads Fiorina 21%-16%, followed by Bush (11%), Rubio (10%), and Carson (10%).
A month ago, according to the same poll, Trump led then-second place candidate John Kasich by 16 points.
The Iowa and New Hampshire polls were conducted in the wake of the Sept. 16 Republican debate and the withdrawal of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker from the GOP presidential race.
Support for Hillary slides
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead the field in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, but she no longer commands the support of a majority of Democrats as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Vice President Biden gain ground.
Clinton is backed by 41% of likely Democratic primary voters, a double-digit drop since the USA TODAY poll taken two months ago, and Sanders is supported by 23%, a jump. Biden is the choice of 20% even though he hasn’t announced whether he will jump in the race.
By nearly 3-1, all those surveyed in the national poll predict that the controversy over her exclusive use of a private email server when she was secretary of State would hurt her prospects in a general election.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by phone Sept. 24-28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample of 430 Democrats has an error margin of +/- 5 points.
“I support Hillary Clinton for a lack of any other real option,” says William Sather, 41, the technical director for a production company in St. Paul, Minn., who was among those surveyed. “Bernie is swell and all, but I don’t quite think he’s electable.” He worries about Clinton’s electability as well. “She’s a terrific leader, it’s just, I can understand there’s a lot of gut-level hatred of her.”
Bob Welch, 44, a real-estate appraiser from Boise, Idaho, is “leaning heavily” to Sanders but would support Clinton if he falters. “Bernie, his message, he gets it,” Welch said in a follow-up interview. “He understands the problems plaguing this country and why we have an economy with problems, our constant need to be involved in war, spending money in ways it shouldn’t be spent. We don’t take care of the people that are suffering in this country.”
Clinton remains the clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, leading Sanders by 18 percentage points and Biden by 21. But her challenges also are clear. In July, for instance, her favorable-unfavorable rating was narrowly negative, at 43%-47%. Now that gap has grown to 12 points, at 39%-51%.
In contrast, Sanders has a 37%-33% favorable-unfavorable rating, and Biden’s favorable rating is a healthy 51%-35%.
Asked for a single word that describes each contender, the most frequent response for Clinton was “liar/dishonest,” followed by “untrustworthy/fake.” For Sanders, the most frequent response was “socialist” and the second most frequent “favorable/good.” For Biden, the top response was “favorable/like,” followed by “honest/honorable,” although the top five answers for him also included “idiot/joke” and “fun/character/goofy.”
“He is what Hillary is not, and that is authentic,” Sather says of Biden. “He’s easy to make fun of … (but) she’s not authentic. She’s searching for the right answer instead of having the right answer.”
The controversy over her decision to use a private email server instead of the government system when she was secretary of State is hurting her, although more among Republicans than Democrats. Six in 10 of those surveyed say the issue bothers them and even more, 70%, predict it will hurt her in a general election.
Even about one-third of Democrats and two-thirds of independents are disturbed by the controversy, as well as nearly nine in 10 Republicans.
Overall, 52% say they’re bothered by how she handled the 2012 attacks in Benghazi, Libya, that left four Americans dead, and by the explanation she has given in the aftermath. Nearly six in 10 say that would be a liability in the general election. Clinton is expected to testify in October before the House select committee investigating Benghazi.
“Trust is a huge thing when it comes to politics, (and) she’s lost that trust,” says Anthony Edelen, 37, a small-business owner from Vermillion, S.D.
But Erika Raney, 32, a business consultant from Los Angeles, says the email controversy is “kind of beating a dead horse” by this point. “I don’t think half of the things we think are election issues should be,” she says. “It’s another way that we sling mud at candidates to detract from actually what they’re saying.”
One more thing: Democrats aren’t particularly interested in watching more debates beyond the half-dozen already sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. The first, hosted by CNN, is scheduled for Oct. 13 in Las Vegas. By 54%-34%, likely Democratic primary voters say six is enough.
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