When Gov. Nathan Deal unveiled his plan Tuesday for saving -- and cutting -- the popular HOPE scholarship and pre-K programs, he launched the most ambitious effort of his nascent administration.
But as the Legislature now begins to work on the actual bill to fulfill Deal's vision for the lottery-funded programs, forces from inside and out could affect the process and, by extension, a signature piece of Deal's agenda.
Without changes, Deal has said, HOPE and pre-K will run out of money by 2013 as demand and cost outpaces lottery revenues. Chuck Clay, a former state senator and chairman of the Georgia GOP, said Deal had to act.
"I don't know if it's a legacy idea as much as it's a necessity," Clay, president of Atlanta-based media and polling firm InsiderAdvantage, said. "Failure to do something, to have HOPE fail on your watch, would absolutely be political disaster."
Even so, much of the immediate reaction from the Gold Dome was laudatory, both toward Deal and his plan.
"I applaud the governor's leadership," House Majority Whip Edward Lindsey, R-Atlanta, said.
"Zell created this program, led the nation with it," said Senate Education and Youth Chairman Fran Millar, R-Atlanta, speaking of former Gov. Zell Miller's leadership in establishing HOPE. "In six weeks, [Deal] has come in and done this, and I think it's a big win for him."
Whether it ultimately is a win remains to be seen. Already some forces are mobilizing against Deal's plan. Chief among them will be retailers who sell lottery tickets, the convenience stores and grocers who receive a commission -- currently up to 7 percent -- on ticket sales. Deal's plan would cap those payouts at 5 percent.
Jim Tudor, president of the Georgia Association of Convenience Stores, said retailer commissions haven't changed in 15 years. While he had yet to see a copy of the bill , Tudor urged lawmakers to acknowledge the role retailers play in the lottery's success.
"I would hope that since retailers have been responsible for providing personnel and facilities to accommodate sales, they would look long and hard before they would want to basically demote the sales team," Tudor said.
Democrats have been largely supportive of Deal's proposal -- at least publicly and on its basic framework. House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, D-Atlanta, and Rep. Calvin Smyre, D-Columbus, a past Democratic caucus chairman, stood with Deal as he unveiled the proposal Tuesday morning at Georgia State University.
Later, at a news conference, Abrams, who signed on to the bill as a co-sponsor, repeated her support for the framework of the plan, and said Democrats insisted on a seat at the negotiating table.
"We were invited to work with Governor Deal," she said. "As the authors of HOPE, the creators of the program, we refuse to not be at the table."
Still, Abrams said her party's support is contingent on several key measures remaining in the bill, including access to HOPE for remedial classes at technical colleges and funding for pre-K.
In her remarks of support, however, was a warning. If the new HOPE is going to require high schoolers to take an increasingly difficult course load to qualify, lawmakers must also get smarter when it comes to education funding.
"We as a Legislature have got to stop cuts to education," she said.
Smyre, in an interview later Tuesday, said the inclusion of a low-interest loan program for lower-income students is also a key to his support. The loans, he said, will help families and students make up the difference between HOPE's current grant of full tuition to the 90 percent cap Deal has proposed.
The governor, Smyre said, was amenable to including the loan program.
"If that's not there, I don't know. I'd be hamstrung on this," Smyre said.
Sen. Vincent Fort, D-Atlanta, was more direct Tuesday in criticizing the proposal. Fort said while he continues to appreciate the civil tone Deal has struck with Democrats, he's concerned about the impact of some of his policies. .
"The HOPE scholarship is absolutely critical," Fort said. "I have deep concerns about some of the proposals, some of the specifics I've read about."
Fort said some of the proposals "would make the HOPE scholarship a hopeless endeavor for some children."
From outside the Capitol, concerns were also being raised. Students questioned Deal’s decision to decouple the scholarship from tuition increases. The decision, they said, could hamper HOPE’s legacy and mission to keep bright students in Georgia.
“Tuition will keep going up and that means every year HOPE will provide us with less and less for our education,” said Joshua Delaney, president of the student government association at the University of Georgia. “Will this HOPE be enough of a promise to keep students in Georgia over the next five or 10 years? I don’t think so.”
Rick Dent, a political strategist who worked for Miller when plans for the lottery, pre-k and HOPE were being mapped out, had mixed feelings about Deal’s proposals.
“This is probably good politics but not necessarily good policy,” Dent said. “I'm just sad that two revolutionary ideas that made Georgia a national leader -- earn a B average and go to college for free, and universal pre-k -- are now destined to become average.”
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