Asked to forecast the outcome of Gwinnett County’s looming MARTA referendum, each of the local officials participating in a lunch panel at the Atlanta Press Club on Monday predicted it would pass.
But to describe their optimism as anything more than cautious would be hyperbole.
“I don’t think it’s going to be an overwheling vote, regardless of the outcome,” said Gwinnett Commission Chair Charlotte Nash, one of four panelists. “I think this is a case where everybody’s vote is going to count, it’s going to make a difference in terms of folks that choose to go vote.”
Prompted by veteran reporter and moderator Maria Saporta, Nash predicted 52.75 percent of voters would choose ‘yes’ during the March 19 referendum.
MARTA CEO and general manager Jeffrey Parker predicted 53.14 percent; Atlanta Regional Commission chairman Doug Hooker, 51.5 percent; Chris Tomlinson, director of a number of local transit agencies, including the new Atlanta-region Transit Link Authority, 54 percent.
Tomlinson added that he was “going to be watching the weather.”
Early voting is already well underway for the referendum, the passage of which would consummate Gwinnett’s pending contract with MARTA and commit the county and visitors to paying a new 1 percent sales tax to help fund transit projects. Those projects would include a passenger rail extension from Doraville into the Norcross area; multiple bus rapid-transit lines, which have been likened to “light rail on rubber tires”; and other expanded bus services, as well as new park-and-ride lots and express commuter buses to the Atlanta area.
Through Sunday, more than 19,000 Gwinnett voters had cast ballots during early voting. That likely puts the referendum turnout on pace to exceed the volume for a typical special election — but who the voters are, not just how many, will likely be key to the outcome.
Polls and surveys conducted in recent years have shown that a majority of Gwinnett residents favor expanding transit options. The county was long a Republican stronghold but is one of the most diverse in the Southeast and has grown increasingly tolerant of more liberal political ideas like public transportation.
Studies, though, show that older, white voters are those most likely to vote against transit — and in Gwinnett, those folks have dominated the early voting.
Analysis by georgiavotes.com showed that, through Sunday, almost 62 percent of early Gwinnett voters were white. Just over 69 percent were 50 or older. Those statistics are actually slightly less daunting for advocates than they were prior to the weekend, which was the first with early voting at all eight voting locations.
“Right now we very much need to see younger folks wake up to the fact that there is a referendum and get to the polls,” Nash said.
She said she was surprised that those younger voters seemingly “have not recognized it’s really their future we’re voting on.”
Multiple advocacy groups have been working to drive awareness and turnout among potential “yes” voters, canvassing neighborhoods, sending mailers and texting residents. The “Go Gwinnett” committee has won a series of big-name Republican endorsements: ex-Gov. Nathan Deal, Gwinnett Sheriff Butch Conway, Gwinnett District Attorney Danny Porter and, just announced Monday, longtime Gwinnett County School Superintendent J. Alvin Wilbanks.
“Local revenue funds over 40 percent of the operations of Gwinnett County Public Schools, so having a robust economy is critical to ensuring we are able to attract the best teachers and provide the instructional programs our students need to be competitive,” Wilbanks’ statement said. “The county’s transportation infrastructure is a vital factor in supporting that robust economy, and it needs major relief.”
Formal opposition is limited largely to a few Facebook pages and a website run by longtime local gadfly Joe Newton. But that doesn’t mean opposition doesn’t exist, and its clout is magnified by the referendum being held during a lower-turnout special election rather than November’s mid-term elections.
Like she has previously, Nash demurred Monday when asked about that decision, which was likely a political compromise orchestrated on behalf of local Republicans who were up for re-election in November. She called that discussion counterproductive.
Hooker, the ARC chairman, likewise said the focus should be on the present.
“I think the Gwinnett vote is probably as important now as the original MARTA vote was some 49 years ago,” he said.
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