For the next 11 weeks, Nathan Deal and Roy Barnes will circle each other like a couple of aging prizefighters, each looking for the opening to land a jab, a hook, an old-fashioned haymaker.
On the one side you have the former champ looking to regain his title. On the other, the seasoned pugilist who finally earned a shot at the belt.
Deal, 67, the Republican former congressman who survived not one but two qualifying bouts, and Barnes, 62, the former Democratic governor who breezed to his nomination, took different paths to reach this point.
Each begins the general election fight on solid footing, with advantages and disadvantages. Each appears to have a legitimate shot at victory: Three respected outfits, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato and The Washington Post, have called the race a tossup.
But in the end, the judges — Georgia’s voters — will decide who is the champ and who is the chump.
Barnes answered the bell with the equivalent of an uppercut, a new television ad that hammers Deal on ethics, a sign that he doesn’t intend to dance around.
Still, Deal has opened the fight with a lead. A poll taken the day after his runoff victory on Tuesday shows him ahead 51 percent to 42 percent.
COMPARING CANDIDATES
Money, money, money
Democrat Roy Barnes’ most recent campaign finance report, covering the period ending June 30, showed him with $1.15 million in cash on hand.
State campaign laws require candidates to file additional reports if they receive contributions of $1,000 or more between the last full filing deadline and the election. These so-called 48-hour reports show that between July 1 and July 20 Barnes raised at least an additional $230,000. The reports do not detail spending. For the campaign, Barnes has raised at least $5.13 million.
Because Republican Nathan Deal had a runoff, he had to file an additional report covering July 1 through Aug. 4, which showed him with $484,000 in cash. Additional reports show him raising more than $70,000 between Aug. 5 and last week’s runoff. For the campaign, Deal has brought in $3.68 million.
The opening rounds
Much has been made of the fact that 680,000 voters cast ballots in the GOP primary, compared with only 395,000 in the Democratic contest, despite there being seven candidates running on each side. But Barnes actually took more votes on July 20 than Deal: 259,000 to 156,000. Deal, however, took 291,000 votes in the runoff.
Barnes saw his greatest primary vote totals in heavily Democratic DeKalb and Fulton counties, where each delivered more than 40,000 votes. Those were followed by his home county of Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett counties.
In his primary, in which he received about 23 percent of the vote, Deal did best in Gwinnett, with nearly 14,000 votes, and his home county of Hall, which delivered him about 12,500 votes. Cobb was the only other county where Deal took more than 10,000 votes (12,041).
But in the runoff Deal more than doubled his take in Gwinnett and Cobb.
Comparing performance in the primaries, Barnes bested Deal’s vote totals in all but 47 counties. But when Deal’s runoff performance is compared with Barnes’ primary totals, Deal took more votes in 90 counties.
Home, sweet home
Barnes is from Cobb County, a traditional Republican stronghold but a county that is trending Democratic in certain regions. Deal lives in Hall County, part of the rock-ribbed Republican mountains.
Barnes has spent much of his time since the primary in South Georgia, where Sonny Perdue swamped him in his failed 2002 bid for re-election. The only counties Barnes lost in the primary were Laurens and Johnson, both southeast of Macon.
Deal can count on his former congressional district in North Georgia, as well as northern Atlanta exurbs such as Cherokee County, to deliver him a pile of votes. Barnes can count on DeKalb, Fulton, Clayton and a good bit of Cobb to drive his totals.
Deal, too, will work communities at the southern end of the state. He, arguably, has more work to do there. In the primary, he captured only a handful of counties in Middle and South Georgia. In the head-to-head runoff, he improved but still lost nearly every border county below I-20 to Karen Handel.
Party support and strength
This could be Barnes’ biggest liability. In the eight years since Barnes lost the governor’s office in 2002, the state has only grown more conservative, more Republican. It’s an obvious advantage for Deal. Barnes must hope that the gains Democrats made in voter registration in 2008 have been followed up by building the infrastructure needed to motivate those voters and get them to the polls. Georgia voters, however, seem even more upset with national Democrats than those in other red states. Republicans will continue to tie Barnes to President Barack Obama and other top Democrats. Barnes will continue to avoid discussing parties. As long as he keeps the polls close, he should be able to count on financial help from the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Governors Association.
For Deal, this could be his greatest asset. It’s not quite enough to simply have an “R” next to his name, but it’s a major advantage. The Republican Governors Association will likely play a big role, as the RGA executive director, Nick Ayers, is a former Perdue aide. Georgia’s GOP suffered a brutal primary and runoff campaign. If it truly unites behind Deal, it will be difficult to beat. If hard feelings persist, however, Deal will have to work that much harder.
Liabilities
Barnes began his campaign by acknowledging his shortcomings as governor. He didn’t listen enough, particularly to teachers, he said. He apologized then and again on the campaign trail. But his fight with teachers during his original term has continued to be used against him. Will teachers, a consistently reliable Democratic bloc, come back to him? Then, of course, there’s the fact that he’s a Democrat running in a Republican state. (See above).
Deal’s greatest stumbling block will be over ethics. He has been dogged by allegations, first reported by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, that Deal used his office and staff to influence state leaders to protect a state program that earned him thousands of dollars a year. The AJC’s report led to more negative news for Deal, as well as a scathing congressional ethics report, and the newspaper last month reported that a federal grand jury had subpoenaed a state official for testimony and documents related to the case. Deal has also been criticized by some for questioning Obama’s nationality.
Why they’ll win
"Georgians know that our great state is falling behind. People are tired of hearing about fringe issues and the partisan politics on both sides. This election is about core issues: educating our children, building transportation infrastructure, protecting our water and, most of all, creating jobs. In times like these, we need competent, experienced leadership. I will tackle the serious issues facing our state and keep the focus on making Georgia work again." — Roy Barnes
"At this moment in history, Georgians outraged by the big government policies ... want a conservative antidote in our state. I've proposed a detailed plan for creating good-paying jobs with lower taxes and less government. My Real Prosperity plan would boost Georgia's business tax climate greatly in the Southeast and nationally... We're starting out in a great position and our campaign has proven that we're tough fighters. We don't plan on giving up the lead." — Nathan Deal
