When Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp announces the date of the state's 2012 Republican presidential primary Thursday, Georgia voters could find themselves playing a critical role in deciding which candidate will challenge President Obama next year. .
And if Kemp, a Republican given sole responsibility for choosing the date, elects to send Georgians to the polls early, nationally the presidential nominating process will be thrown into further chaos.
Kemp will announce his decision at an 11 a.m. news conference at the Capitol. An early date would give Georgia voters a big say in determining the nominee but would also anger national Republicans and impact other states' voting. A later date puts Georgians at greater risk of having a diminished voice in the nominating process.
Kemp wouldn't divulge the date Wednesday, but said he had a "big tent in getting advice." He took input from Georgia elected officials and party leaders, his counterparts in Missouri, Tennessee and Florida and various campaigns. His goal is to make Georgia "relevant."
"I want to pick a date that campaigns will want to come to Georgia," he said.
Top Georgia Republicans expect him to choose a date in March. That would be considered a safe pick that would keep Georgia within the GOP's rules for 2012 and would not cause shock waves in the presidential race. Gov. Nathan Deal, for example, does not favor bucking the system.
"What the governor has said is we want to follow the rules," Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said. "We do not want to see the state lose delegates."
But, if those insiders are wrong and Kemp goes rogue, then the aftermath could be messy.
Republican National Committee rules say that only four states are allowed to hold nominating events -- typically, primaries or caucuses -- before March 1: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Any other state that jumps that March 1 date would lose half of its delegates and guest passes to next year's Republican National Convention in Tampa.
Seems clear enough, right? But some states are willing to either sacrifice the size of its delegation or hope that the eventual nominee waves the penalties. Florida, for example, is apparently more than willing to go that route, despite the threat to lose delegates to the convention it is hosting in 2012.
A committee of Sunshine State political leaders will meet Friday to pick its date (the RNC requires all states set a date by Saturday). Florida Speaker of the House Dean Cannon, a Republican, told CNN on Wednesday that it is likely to choose Jan. 31.
Florida's goal is to be fifth, after the four given choice status by the national party. But those states and the RNC want the contest to begin in February, not January. Florida's move to Jan. 31 would change that as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina would all move ahead of Florida earlier into January.
Josh Putnam, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina and author of the Frontloading HQ blog, has been tracking the states' machinations in setting a primary calendar. He believes a move by Florida to Jan. 31 would push the Iowa vote to Jan. 10, New Hampshire to Jan. 17, Nevada to Jan. 21 and South Carolina to Jan. 28.
Other states, too, have hinted at breaking the rule, including Arizona, Louisiana, Missouri and Michigan.
Sue Everhart, chairwoman of the Georgia Republican Party, said she would support holding the GOP presidential primary in March or later. She guessed Kemp will not schedule it before March 1.
At the same time, Everhart bemoaned the lack of attention Georgia has received from the candidates.
“Since we became a red state, they have not paid a lot of attention to us,” she said. “They come here to raise money. They use us as a donor state. I don’t see any changes in their attitude this go-round. We’ve tried. I have called."
Presidential hopefuls have made plenty of visits to Georgia, but almost all of them have been quick trips in-and-out for private fund raisers, not town hall sessions or meet-and-greets with the public. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the newest candidate in the race, will also blow through town on Friday when he gives a speech to the Georgia Public Policy Foundation.
But Georgia would become more popular if Kemp chooses a date in January or February. Candidates would be forced to campaign here, which means voters would get face time with candidates and businesses would see a boost from events, advertising, meals and lodging.
Others would like to see Kemp take a shot at the top of the calendar.
“I would like to go the day before Iowa, personally,” U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Savannah, said. “The front-end is flawed and then you get to Super Tuesday and then it is all over with.”
Super Tuesday is normally the first Tuesday in March, when a bloc of large states, traditionally including Georgia, vote. In 2008, however, when Florida also scrambled the board by jumping the line, Georgia and other states had Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.
The process, Kemp said, "is just a convoluted mess. There's going to be some fallout from it. If we move up, or Florida moves up and everybody else moves up, you're going to have people campaigning in Iowa over Thanksgiving."
Staff writer Jeremy Redmon contributed.
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