The differing approaches of the national political parties to Georgia’s nascent U.S. Senate race provide an instructive backdrop to what awaits us in the two-year knife fight to replace Saxby Chambliss.
Several Republicans immediately expressed interest in the seat when Chambliss announced he would not run again, including multiple members of the House delegation. One in particular is making the GOP establishment fret: ultra-conservative U.S. Rep. Paul Broun of Athens, who last week became the first to formally declare his candidacy.
But any organized effort by the powers-that-be to stymie a candidate could easily backfire, and the powers understand this. The National Republican Senatorial Committee moved quickly to tamp down rumors reported by my AJC colleague Jim Galloway that it would get involved in the primary — displaying the acute sensitivities that come with alleged meddling.
Friction remains between party officials and Republicans’ activist right wing. Groups such as the Wall Street-backed Club For Growth and former Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund have successfully backed conservative candidates in GOP primaries over party picks. Sometimes that works out for the GOP (Florida’s Marco Rubio is now a star), and sometimes it does not (Indiana’s Richard Mourdock lost what should have been a Republican seat).
Neither side will accept blame for Missouri’s Todd “legitimate rape” Akin, who was boosted by religious groups in a three-way primary.
The forces of the right bristled at an effort, first reported a week ago in the New York Times, by the Karl Rove-backed American Crossroads to fund more “electable” Senate candidates in 2014. “Rather than listening to the grass roots and working to advance their principles, the establishment has chosen to declare war on its party’s most loyal supporters,” said Matt Hopkins of the Senate Conservatives Fund.
American Crossroads declined comment on the Georgia GOP field until it shakes out.
Democrats are less skittish about showing a preference. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has met with a handful of possibilities including Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (who later ruled himself out of the race), U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Augusta and Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn – and it will admit to doing so.
The DSCC is unafraid to take sides in a primary, including this year in Massachusetts when it publicly backed U.S. Rep. Ed Markey in a special election.
Democrats view Georgia as perhaps their best chance to win a Republican seat next year, which tells you a lot about how few pickup opportunities they have. They will be much more concerned with playing defense in Louisiana, Alaska, West Virginia, Arkansas and elsewhere. A Washington Democratic source said it is far too early to say whether the national party will spend any real money on Georgia, but “there are a lot of different ways we can be helpful.”
In order to mount a serious challenge to Georgia’s statewide Republican hegemony, Democrats must rally behind a strong candidate and pray for a Republican nominee they can effectively depict as Akin 2.0.
Democrats readily acknowledge that the changing demographics of Georgia likely will not make the state truly competitive until 2016 or beyond. But they are approaching the race with less trepidation than their Republican colleagues, who have the most to lose.
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