Rapes, murders up in Atlanta but overall crime down

But, from 2013 to 2014, there were marked increases in the most violent crimes. Murders were up 13 percent; rapes, 38 percent. The number of murders was the most since 2008, when intown crimes routinely grabbed headlines and dominated the mayoral election the following year.

“If the numbers are up, you can’t ignore it,” said Atlanta City Councilman Howard Shook. “But it’s possible that whatever conditions there were that caused crime to drop locally and nationally have exhausted themselves and there’s nowhere to go but up. Ultimately, it may just be a regression to the mean.”

CHART: Atlanta crime over the years

The jump in murders and rapes should be viewed in the context of Atlanta’s rising population, said Georgia State University criminal justice professor Volkan Topalli.

The more accurate barometer, according to Topalli, is measuring aggravated assaults and burglaries, which affect more people. In 2014, Atlanta police reported a 2 percent decline in aggravated assaults and a 6 percent drop in burglaries from the previous year. Those numbers have decreased noticeably each year since 2009.

Atlanta Police Chief George Turner said his department has noticed the rise in murders, but added, “There is no clear nexus indicating any specific cause for the increase.”

“It is difficult to predict where the next homicide will occur, primarily based on the fact that most homicides occur as the result of some other type of criminal activity that escalates into a homicide,” Turner told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

In September, the APD assigned 18 officers to a new initiative created to better pinpoint the exact areas where crimes were going up. After noting a rise in violent crimes in Zone 1, the department transferred additional resources to the neighborhoods most directly impacted.

“We have seen a 40 percent decrease in crime and zero homicides in that time frame,” Turner said.

And, last month, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed announced a campaign to reduce sexual assaults after learning of the dramatic spike, from 101 a year ago to 139 in 2014.

“I want our message to be clear and unmistakable that sexual assault is an affront to human and personal dignity and it’s a crime no matter where it occurs,” Reed said.

More than 80 percent of such incidents take between acquaintances, Turner said, attributing the rise in part to the plethora of social media apps that facilitating amorous meetings.

“People literally order up an individual to participate with sexually or (place) an advertisement on social media that they are available,” he said. “And then things don’t work out.”

The new campaign targets Atlanta’s colleges and universities and seeks to educate primarily young adults on the risks of the modern hook-up culture.

Residents should try not to read too much into the higher numbers of rapes and murders, Topalli said.

“At this point, I’d say it’s more of a blip than a spike,” he said.