Atlanta hopes return of college football provides economic kick

There likely will be even bigger football crowds in town this Labor Day weekend for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff games. Saturday’s first game pitting No. 1 ranked Alabama against No. 14 University of Miami has sold out Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s 71,000 seats.

Last year the country was six months into the pandemic when the national pastime that marks America’s entry into fall — college football — fell victim to the quarantines and shutdowns. The Cricket game and the three intown NCAA Division I matchups were canceled.

The months that followed continued the historic pummeling of Atlanta’s once-robust hospitality events, with empty stadiums, silent concert venues and darkened convention halls.

Travel was picking up through summer and football’s return is fanning hopes that the big-events industry will continue its recovery, providing a welcome jolt to the local economy.

But the recovery is tenuous. Fueled by the delta variant, hospitalizations in Georgia reached pandemic highs this week. The Centers for Disease Control recommended on Tuesday that unvaccinated Americans not travel this holiday weekend.

Credit: Hyosub Shin

Credit: Hyosub Shin

There are some mixed signals about how well this weekend’s events will be attended. The Cricket game, which matches top teams from historical black colleges and universities, brought in 8,000 fewer fans than the 2019 matchup. Monday’s Chick-fil-A game between Louisville and Ole Miss has sold less than 50,000 tickets.

Next month’s Atlanta Pride festival and parade has been canceled, and though conventions are returning, they are attracting about half as many people as before.

Still in play are the crowds that hotel, restaurant and bar owners hope show up beginning Friday for the Georgia Tech and Georgia State University football games, along with Dragon Con, which typically brings in more than 80,000 fans, and the Atlanta Jazz Festival.

Football games are some of the first big public events in Atlanta’s post-summer season, and the turnout for the Cricket game was a positive sign, said Mark Vitner, a Wells Fargo senior economist who heads up its annual “Economics of College Football” report.

Many are vaccinated, feeling more secure and missing their former lives, he said. “This year, everybody is hungry to get out and about, and hungry for football.”

And where do football games rank in Atlanta’s overall events and convention business?

“We are the 4th-largest convention town in the U.S., and when you talk about college football, our two Kickoff games and the SEC Championship and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl will be four of the top eight conventions in town this year,” said Gary Stokan, the CEO of Peach Bowl, Inc. “That is how important college football is to the city of Atlanta.”

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Football game organizers are doing what they can to keep fans coming by taking precautions. The Kickoff games in Mercedes-Benz will play with an open roof to increase the flow of fresh air, require staff working with fans to wear masks and encourage fans to wear them.

Last year’s loss of visitors for football and other big events led to brutal jobs cuts in the city. Georgia unemployment topped out at 12.5% in April 2020, and the leisure and hospitality industry cut 32% of its workforce in metro Atlanta between January and July last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The leisure and hospitality industry in the metro area remains about 40,000 workers short of the 2019 height, BLS numbers say.

Local hotel occupancy rates fell into the teens early in the pandemic. Occupancy rates need to be in the 50% to 60% range to be profitable for less-expensive hotels, and higher for pricier ones, according to Helen Zaver, an industry analyst with Colliers International in Atlanta.

Metro Atlanta’s hotel occupancy rates rose from 36% in January to 58% in July, according to the Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau, but Zaver said the end of summer usually depresses rates.

The North Carolina Central and Alcorn teams, marching bands and staff bought 600 hotel room-nights, said Cookie Smoak, the president of the Atlanta Airport District Convention & Visitors Bureau. Using an industry formula, she estimated the impact of that 600 nights at $2 million, which would include other expenditures such as food and services.

Though economic impact estimates of sporting events are questionable, money spent by out of towners is more valuable to the region’s economy than in-town dollars, which would have likely been spent locally with or without the game, said Joshua Pitts, a professor of sports management and economics at Kennesaw State University. The money is also spread out around a region, but becomes more concentrated and critical to businesses near the venue.

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

The Cricket game at Center Parc Stadium, the former Turner Field, produced the best weekend so far in 2021 for Kevin Gunter, the manager of the nearby Bullpen Rib House. He hopes this weekend will be even better with the Georgia State versus Army game at Center Parc, and he said Alabama fans also usually show up at his restaurant when in Atlanta.

Jeremy Chambers, a partner in Hot Dog Pete’s and Hero Doughnuts & Buns, next to Center Parc, said his sales last week were about 20% above his recent weekend average.

Gunter said, “We don’t know what the delta variant is going to bring, whether it’s going to make people go back into taking precautions. And we think overall, it’s still going to hurt the turnout.

“But we are keeping our fingers crossed.”

Atlanta hotel occupancy rates 2021*

*Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau

Top five average college football attendance by conference*

1. SEC: 73,000

2. Big Ten: 65,000

3. Big 12: 57,000

4. ACC: 48,000

5. Pac-12: 46,000

*Wells Fargo Securities and NCAA