As often happens, one big change in home technology will beget a bunch of other changes.
Today, we'll roll out the crystal ball and talk about how the move toward streaming programming from the Internet to your TV has created that need for change. And if you're among the growing number who already are using video streaming to watch Netflix, Hulu or any of the other sources of programming, the future may be right now. Some of these changes can immediately make a big difference in what you're seeing on that big screen of yours.
One thing I'm sure of -- the safest prediction of the day -- is that video streaming is going to become a routine way to watch television. The other predictions I'll make are fairly safe bets too. I ran my thinking past one of the nation's true Internet gurus: Nick Feamster, a Georgia Tech expert with a Ph.D. from MIT. Most of the television he watches at home comes from video streaming. So, like many of the rest of us, he's eager for the advances that will make video streaming even more seamless. Unlike most of the rest of us (including me), he has a deep understanding of how all this works. But any wrong-headed notions here are all mine and not shared by Feamster.
Speed thrills, not kills
My first prediction is that Internet providers will soon be offering much higher speeds (at higher prices) to home users.
Video streaming requires a big chunk of bandwidth to give you the best picture possible. Since DSL download speeds are generally slower than what you get from cable providers, DSL customers in particular may need to move to higher speed DSL right now.
Judging from my own experience and from the flood of e-mails prior columns have brought, there's no hard and fast rule about the speed you need for a good picture on the screen. But it seems clear that those with DSL accounts capped at 1.5 megabits per second (you'll usually see this abbreviated as 1.5 Mbps) would get better results by moving to 3 Mbps service. Depending on who is providing your DSL service and where you live, speeds up to 6 Mbps may be available. If you're using video streaming routinely, going to 6 Mbps may make sense.
If I had to pull a minimum suggested speed out of midair, I'd say that if you can deliver from 2 to 2.5 Mbps to the device that connects your Internet service to the TV you'll be OK. Keep in mind that it's unlikely your Internet service will consistently deliver the rated speed. For instance, I have 3 Mbps DSL service, but speed tests at various times of the day show an actual range of speeds from the low 2's to 2.7 Mbps on a good day.
The speed cap is much higher for those who get their Internet from a cable television provider. Depending on your provider, speeds of 10 Mbps or even 15 Mbps are possible. But keep in mind that, unlike with DSL, cable Internet customers share service with others. On a night when others in your area are putting a heavy load on the service, speeds can drop dramatically. Even so, the speed you get probably will still be speedy compared to DSL.
Now I'll throw in another prediction for free. DSL providers will find ways to raise the cap on the speed they can deliver. There are forms of DSL not often offered to home users that can do much better.
The hogs in your home
I predict that more intelligent router technology is needed -- and will come. There's a need to do a better job of dividing up the bandwidth for all those who share that single connection to your home network.
Even the fastest service can get gobbled up in a typical home. Let's paint a picture of what can happen. In one room we have young Chris, who spends hours at a time playing World of Warcraft instead of doing his homework. Then, Samantha, unlike her brother, is working on a multi-media project for school and, in the process, downloading files with gusto. Add in a telephone service that uses the Internet and another chunk of Internet pie gets a nibble. So when Dad gets ready to watch a baseball game streamed by MLB.com, the video can be anywhere from barely acceptable to a total mess.
Most types of router -- the device that lets you connect all those computers to one connection -- are pretty dumb. They don't care who gets what when it comes to the Internet. So, all those other users can make a mess out of dad's baseball game.
The first answer to that problem has been a type of router that allows you to set priorities for various users and uses. You can tell the router, for instance, to give priority to streaming video to the TV. For now that means a router using a technology called Quality of Service, usually abbreviated as QOS. Here's an example of a router like that: http://tinyurl.com/2b5p8n.
I'm using that router as an example, not as a recommendation for or against buying it. In fact, I'd be careful about moving to a QOS router now. For one thing, the technology isn't a perfect solution for all homes. For another, if you configure the router incorrectly you can make things worse, not better. Only those who understand QOS and its pitfalls and virtues can determine if it's the right solution. Here's some information on QOS that will get you started: http://tinyurl.com/35mvqb.
My prediction is that in the immediate future we'll see a flood of easy-to- use products that give you more control over the Internet service that reaches your home. It may be QOS, or something that does an even better job.
What happens next
No one knows for sure. But you have a ringside seat for a really interesting time in home technology. And you'll be able to watch all those changes right on your big screen.
