OIL AND GAS +11%
TRUCKING +4.4%
HOUSING +3.3%
HIGH-TECH +4.1%
TEMP JOBS +2.6%
RETAIL 0%
GOVERNMENT >1%
ARTS -1.1%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Robert Half International, Towers Watson, Haver Analytics, PayScale
If you hope to get a raise that finally feels like one, it helps to work in the right industry.
Pay for all kinds of workers should be rising by this point in the economy’s recovery. But five years after the Great Recession officially ended, raises remain sharply uneven across industries and, as a whole, have barely kept up with prices. Overall pay has been rising about 2 percent a year, roughly equal to inflation.
The best raises have gone to workers with specialized skills in a few booming industries — energy, transportation, health care, technology. Those in retail or government have been less fortunate.
“If you’re in an in-demand field, with the right skill set, the chance of getting a raise is much higher,” says Katie Bardaro, an economist at PayScale, a pay-tracking firm.
Typically in a recovery, raises in a few industries lead to raises in others as workers become confident enough to quit one job for another for more pay.
This time, the subpar recovery has slowed pay gains. Technology has played a role, too. It’s lifted pay for people who work, for example, with programs that sift data from your mobile devices so companies can pitch products matched to your interests. Yet workers in industries upended by the Internet, such as retailers left behind by e-commerce, have been hurt.
Overall, most U.S. workers have been faring better. But inflation has eroded their gains. From the start of the recovery in June 2009 through April, pay for non-managerial and production workers has dropped 0.2 percent after accounting for inflation. By this point in the previous three recoveries, wages had risen an average 2.3 percent after inflation.
Still some economists think the outlook for broader pay gains has brightened. More people are quitting jobs than at any time in six years, a sign of confidence. A third of small businesses say they plan to raise pay within six months, double the proportion a year ago.
And the unemployment rate among workers who lost jobs less than six months ago is 4.1 percent, below its three-decade average. These short-term unemployed are the ones employers tend to draw upon to fill jobs. Fewer of them suggest pressure to keep present employees content by raising pay.
“There comes a point where that excess supply (of workers) gets mopped up and wages begin to climb,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
Still, many economists, including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, disagree. She says the still-high 6.3 percent unemployment rate for all workers, which includes 3.4 million people out of work for more than six months, gives employers reason to restrict raises.
The gloomy camp includes workers themselves. Nearly half of all households expect their inflation-adjusted income to decline over the next 12 months, a University of Michigan survey found last month.
That in itself could limit raises: If you don’t think conditions are ripe for a raise, you’re not likely to ask for one.
