Home sales
Home sales in the 11-county metro Atlanta region for the past six months are showing a return to normal seasonal trends. September figures represent preliminary data.
Month…..Total sales…..Month-over-month percent change
April…..3,784…..up 3.6 percent
May…..4,600…..up 21.6 percent
June…..4,351…..down 5.4 percent
July…..4,623…..up 6.3 percent
August…..4,268…..down 7.7 percent
September…..3,522…..down 17.5 percent
Source: Atlanta Board of Realtors
Sales prices
The median sales price of metro Atlanta homes is up substantially over the previous year, but the increase is starting to ease.
Month…..Median price…..Year-over-year percent change
April…..$190,000…..up 45.9 percent
May…..$200,0000…..up 39.9 percent
June…..$215,000…..up 46.3 percent
July…..$217,000…..up 47.1 percent
August…..$205,675…..up 38.5 percent
September…..$189,000…..up 35 percent
Source: Atlanta Board of Realtors
After suffering through years of housing doldrums, metro Atlanta was struck this year by a frenzy of buyers who caused astronomical price increases as they fought over ever-scarcer homes.
Now, the regional housing market appears to be doing something stranger: It’s returning to normal.
Sales and prices both declined in the 11-county Atlanta region from August to September, according to the Atlanta Board of Realtors. But that is as it should be.
Historically, most homebuying happens in the spring and summer months, before school starts. By September, sales are traditionally supposed to slow.
“Housing is one of the most seasonal industries there is,” said John Hunt, a senior analyst with the real estate analysis firm Smart Numbers. “Prices are down. Prices always do that as we head to December.”
But that hadn’t happened since 2008, when the housing market collapsed. A 2010 tax credit returned some normalcy to the market, Hunt said, but it was quickly lost. It’s been years since the seasonal housing cycle was in effect.
The number of houses for sale is still lower than it should be and some buyers continue to have trouble finding homes. An increase in interest rates made it harder for other buyers to qualify for a mortgage. And rapidly rising prices have priced some buyers out.
Mac Read, who is relocating from Charlotte, said he has been looking for a house in Dunwoody, Midtown or Buckhead for more than three months. He hopes to spend $200,000 or less, but he doesn’t have many choices.
“We found houses, but by the time we send them to the Realtor, they’re under contract,” he said. “It’s such a low inventory, the good ones cycle out.”
Read hopes to find a house and then make a same-day offer.
Ed Short, a Realtor with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Metro Brokers, said he is still seeing multiple offers on homes in north Fulton and south Forsyth counties, though purchases slowed as the government shutdown and potential default loomed. They have again started to pick up somewhat, he said.
Buyers no longer feel the same sense of urgency they did earlier in the year, said Nancy See, president of the Atlanta Board of Realtors. The group reported that sales were down 17.5 percent in September from August, as fall homebuying habits return. Sales are down 2.8 percent from last September.
“It’s probably not as hysterical now as it was a few months ago,” she said. “We’re starting to see a more balanced market. There’s no question about that.”
The median sales price of $189,000 is down 7.4 percent in September from August. Prices are up 35 percent over last September.
Eugene James, Atlanta regional director of the housing information company Metrostudy, said a decrease in prices from August can be explained by a shift in the homes that are being listed for sale. Areas like south DeKalb, where fewer homes were being sold, are now seeing an increase in activity. Homes there may sell for less than the regional average, he said, bringing prices down across the region.
“By no means does this mean that home prices will start to go down again,” he said. “Quite the contrary.”
The widely watched S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices were up 18.5 percent in July, the latest month available, following eight straight months of double-digit increases. For three months, though, the increases have been abating.
For the first time since the recession began, Hunt and others expect home sales will wane through the fall and winter, and wax again as the new year begins.
“It means we’re approaching a more normal market,” James said. “Things will become a bit more predictable.”
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