Peak Prices
Gas is typically most expensive in the warm months. This year’s peak will be lower than in the past five years, according to the forecast.
Year/Peak price
2016 (projected), $2.45 to $2.65
2015, $2.85
2014, $3.72
2013, $3.80
2012, $3.94
2011, $4.11 (record)
source: GasBuddy
Looks like metro Atlanta drivers are going to have another year of relatively cheap gas.
Gas prices will likely hit bottom in February then climb to a high between $2.45 and $2.65 a gallon in late May, according to a Maryland-based gatherer of gas price reports from around the country.
That is below any high point of the past five years.
The average price of regular in metro Atlanta – $1.89 a gallon as of Friday – is the lowest since the early days of the recession in 2008, according to GasBuddy. Adjusted for inflation, it’s less than folks paid in 1965.
The price of gasoline hinges on many factors but most heavily on oil. The global market has pushed oil prices lower and, barring the unexpected, that will continue, said Patrick DeHaan, head petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.
Aggressive domestic drilling has abated amid lower prices that make it less profitable, but there is still plenty of oil on the market and global economic woes have kept demand “tepid,” DeHaan said.
“That suggest(s) the overall trend of recent years should continue, and that means favorable outcomes for U.S. consumers.”
Several stations in metro Atlanta are selling gas at less than $1.80 and at least one is pricing gas at $1.75 a gallon – close to the statewide average, according to GasBuddy.
A year ago, gasoline was about 30 cents a gallon more expensive in metro Atlanta. The highest average price of the past 12 months came late last spring: $2.85 a gallon. A year earlier, the average price crested at $3.72 a gallon. The high was a few cents above that in 2013 and a few cents higher in 2012.
The average price last reached $4 a gallon in 2011, according to GasBuddy. The region’s peak: $4.11 in the summer of 2008.
Prices may still seem high to those old enough to remember the sub-$1 pump prices of the 1960s and early 1970s. But in 1965 dollars, today’s average price would be 25 cents, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. To put it the other way around, a gallon of 1965 gas would be worth $2.26 in today’s dollars
Among major metro areas, at the peak, only four will have cheaper gas than Atlanta, according to GasBuddy: Dallas, Houston and Phoenix.
Energy prices are a large part of budgets for many consumers and companies, but they are not as crucial to the American economy as they used to be. For decades, a spike in gas prices would likely flip the economy into recession and a plunge in prices would spur dramatic growth.
The average mileage numbers for American vehicles this past year declined as more people bought trucks and larger cars. Even so, vehicles are vastly more efficient. Companies are also much more aggressive about managing costs, often using technology to minimize trips and miles.
Still, U.S. drivers will spend $17 billion less this year on gasoline than they spent last year, estimated Gregg Laskoski, GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst.
Fuel is also a major expense for some businesses. When gas and diesel prices rise, they typically feel forced to raise prices for customers, said Page Siplon, CEO of Alpharetta-based TeamOne Logistics, which manages more than 700 drivers who drive for other companies.
If prices fall, a company can cut prices, pay employees more or take more profit, Siplon said. “When prices go down, that gives a company more flexibility.”
There are always some wild cards that could send gas price forecasts off course.
Among them, a hurricane or two in the Gulf of Mexico, an unexpected refinery shutdown or serious production problems in a major oil-producing nation, or an escalation of Middle East violence that affects supply.
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