By RODNEY HO/ rho@ajc.com, originally filed Thursday, March 12, 2015
I am going to provide two rankings. First up, I'm going to predict how the top 12 will finish based on what we know now. This is what I'll use in two months to make fun of how off I was in retrospect.
I am frequently off. Way off. I think last year at this point, I thought Sam Woolf would win. Oops. My most infamous bad prediction year was season 8 when I predicted Kris Allen would go home... first. I did pick Phillip Phillips to win season 11 but I'm sure my hometown bias worked in my favor.
1. Nick Fradiani. I may be going on past history but WGWG's do well on this show. He has been mighty consistent and if he can change things up just enough the way David Cook and Kris Allen did, he might be able to take it home over very very tough competition. Plus, he is the only pop-rock guy. I have a feeling the R&B singers may fighting over votes and cancel each other out to a degree.
2. Tyanna Jones. She has been gloriously consistent at all levels. Her youthful exuberance is not over the top or forced. She seems to have just enough of humbleness to make her a winner along the lines of Jordin Sparks.
3. Jax. She is an artist pure and simple but is she as warm and likable as Tyanna?
4. Sarina-Joi Crowe. I gave her a pass in one sense last night but that out-of-nowhere turd of a performance worries me just enough to wonder if she can really take it all the way. For now, she's still a potential winner. Could she be Jordin Sparks redux?
5. Qaasim Middleton. He may well win the whole competition based purely on his stage work. But he seriously needs to work on his vocals. I'm sure he's aware of it but does he care? Will he put in the work?
6. Clark Beckham. He strikes me as someone that may be just a tad too vanilla personality wise to get much further than this. And he has yet to sing anything that sounds remotely modern. (The spoiler song for tonight? A song Taylor Hicks did nine years ago!)
7. Rayvon Owen. I love Rayvon but is he too one-note? He may very well exit early and shock his fans if he doesn't show more colors.
8. Joey Cook. She is up against some tough competition and her very specific sound can attract only so many people. At some point, she will have an off night and will be ousted.
9. Adanna Duru. She is a good singer but strikes me low on the warmth and likability factor. That is why she didn't get enough votes to make the top 5 girls last week and why the judges needed to hand her a wild card. I envision this is about as far as she gets.
10. Quentin Alexander. Poor Quentin is being overshadowed by Qaasim's showmanship and Rayvon's smooth-as-silk sound. The judges had to wild-card him as well. He's going to have to take some real risks to go further than No. 10 in my mind.
11. Maddie Walker. She is the only country artist and that's to her advantage. That audience has lifted many a singer through this competition. She may very well finish further up but she is going to have to convince me with some killer performances.
12. Daniel Seavey. You have to wonder if HCJ's harsh assessment of him last night will telegraph to viewers NOT to vote for him - or inspire his fan base to do more. I don't know. But we can only hope his time is up.
And here are my power rankings just for this week in terms of who is doing especially well and who isn't.
1. Tyanna Jones
2. Jax
3. Rayvon Owen
4. Sarina-Joi Crowe
5. Clark Beckham
6. Nick Fradiani
7. Quaasim Middleton
8. Joey Cook
9. Quentin Alexander
10. Adanna Duru
11. Maddie Walker
12. Daniel Seavey
***
Credit: Rodney Ho
Credit: Rodney Ho
Scott Borchetta is best known as the man who helped turn Taylor Swift into a superstar at Big Machine Records. That's an impressive resume starter.
Now he is going to attempt to shape this year's winner into a star as well.
He has a deep A&R country background. His artists on his label are all country, most notably Rascal Flatts, Tim McGraw and Danielle Bradbury ("The Voice"). Too bad he only has Maddie Walker to work with in that genre. He is going to be grappling with a raft of R&B singers.
For better or worse, Borchetta doesn't have the breadth of experience of Jimmy Iovine, who was the mentor seasons 11 and 12. Then again, outside of Phillip Phillips, nobody really hit from those seasons.
We had a 25-minute mass press conference with Borchetta. In retrospect, I should have asked how an R&B or pop artist would fit on his label - or how he could use his experience to help those types of singers.
Instead, I was first up so I opted for a couple of broad set-up questions. (I may request a one-on-one phoner with closer to the finale of the show.]
Me: Why did you end up doing this?
Borchetta: "It was really interesting because we've been talking about it for a little while. I think the psychology has changed since the show began 14 years ago. I've had so many conversations with new artists trying to figure out their careers. 'American Idol' now shows up as one of the consistent talking points. I can work in clubs. I can do online. I can try out for 'American Idol.' .. You have a generation that has grown up with 'American Idol.' I had to look at it for what it is: a great A&R and artist development opportunity."
Me: What do you hope to accomplish as a mentor? [I know, I know, total softball question!]
Borchetta: "I look at this the same way we sign any artist. It's all about development. My goal when that winner is announced May 13 that on May 14 we are bringing a significant new recording artist to the market. And in all of the TV shows, when the show's over, the career isn't over. So Big Machine is going to continue to work diligently in the continued development of whoever wins." [Softball question = softball answer. Oh, well.]
Other subjects:
Going off the beaten path: A New Orleans reporter asked about Quentin Alexander and Joey Cook as outliers. Borchetta said he welcomes singers with their own vision. "You want a different color. You want to be able to have a platform like this to break the next Lady Gaga, break the next Eric Church... That's what I love about Quentin and Joey and Jax. They are individuals. And I'm very excited about them."
How this is better than working with "The Voice" singers: "We didn't have an opportunity to work with them until they were off the show. Here, we're trying to advance the curve: work with them now and take advantage of all the media and attention and get a head start. When done right, this show does not anoint you a career. It anoints you a fantastic opportunity. I'm here to take advantage of that opportunity"
On his coaching working the stage: "We've really been super focused on making sure you get on the stage, it's a performance. It doesn't have to be overdone. Understand that the 90 seconds, two minutes you have can move the needle and understand every note counts." (My follow up question I never got to ask is what sort of style coach is he: is he tough or kind, directive or suggestive?)
How no more results show will impact people's abilities to get to know the contestants: "I think we've got to do a great job sending everybody to americanidol.com. We have so much content, so much more than we can put on television. That's the message for our Idol fans and watchers."
Social media push: "In this media world, forever, we never talked about what songs would be performed prior to the performance. Now we're having the contestants tweet out what song they are doing just to get that awareness and buzz out there... I think that's a great way to build excitement for what's going to happen that night."
TV preview
"American Idol," 8-10 p.m. tonight, top 12 becomes 11, Fox
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