Freddie Freeman fractured his left wrist on May 17 and the general feeling was that, when he returned some time in August, he would find the smoldering ruins of his team's season. Instead he’s back a day short of seven weeks and the Braves somehow managed to stay afloat without him.
Now that Freeman's back, if the Braves keep this team together at the trade deadline can they make a serious run at an NL wild card—something that seemed unthinkable even before Freeman got hurt?
Freeman, you will recall, was one of the best hitters in the NL before his injury (and really since the beginning of last season). The Braves were five games under .500 when he went to the disabled list; they were one game under .500 upon his return. They were averaging 4.7 runs over 37 games when Freeman went down; they averaged 4.5 runs over 44 games he missed.
So with Freeman back (and playing third base) could the Braves really win one of the NL wild cards? Tilt your head a bit when looking at the standings, and you can see how they've got a shot. The best case might be looking at the rest of the field and shrugging: Why not the Braves?
(I'm assuming the Nationals, 8 1/2 games up in the NL East, will run away with it once they shore up their one major weakness, the bullpen,)
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The Braves (40-41) began Tuesday tied with the Cubs (41-42), seven games behind the Rockies (49-36) for the second wild card. The Braves are comfortably ahead of the rest of the NL East. That leaves the Braves chasing the second wild card with contenders from the Central and West.
The Rockies are fading . The Central-leading Brewers are hanging around longer than expected but they swing too freely for it to last. The Cubs have been perplexing; they will get healthier but will they get better? The Cardinals are playing better now but they’ve been just as inconsistent as the Braves.
It's not out of the question that the Braves, flawed as they are, could outlast any of those teams for the second wild card. But schedule strength is the biggest reason FanGraphs gives the Braves just a 2.8 percent chance of winning a wild card.
Braves opponents over their first 81 games had a combined .471 winning percentage, lowest in the majors. The Braves were outscored by a total of 36 runs for the 10th-worst differential in the majors.
FanGraphs projects the Braves will go 37-44 the rest of the way with a minus-31 run differential. That projects to a 77-85 finish, respectable for the Braves under their rebuilding circumstances but not nearly enough to earn a wild card.
The tougher schedule began tonight with a two-game series against the Astros (56-27). It continues this weekend at the Nationals (50-34). After the All-Star break the Braves get the D-Backs (52-31), Cubs, Dodgers (55-29), D-Backs again and, after a pre-deadline breather at the Phillies (28-53), another series against the Dodgers.
By then we'll know if the Braves really are serious wild card contenders. Right now, you can look and see how they might be. That's pretty remarkable considering the outlook when Freeman went to the DL.
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