The Falcons put up lots of eye-popping numbers during their demolition of the Panthers , led by record-setting days by wide receiver Julio Jones (300 yards receiving) and quarterback Matt Ryan (503 yards passing, 4 TDs). The Falcons won't face Carolina's awful each week, though, so they can't count on that kind of production for the rest of the season.
But there was one number just as important as the video-game stats put up by Jones and Ryan, and one that bodes well for the Falcons going forward: zero. That’s how many passes Ryan’s teammates dropped in 36 targets against the Panthers, according to a video review by Pro Football Focus.
Before the season, I noted that while Ryan had a down year by his standards in 2015 he didn't really play that badly . One overlooked reason for the offensive struggles in 2015 were dropped passes: 37 in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus, fourth-most in the league.
There’s been a dramatic improvement in that area so far this season, and that helps to explain why the Falcons have the league’s No. 1 offense through four games.
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Falcons pass targets have just one dropped pass in 139 pass targets this season, according to Stats LLC, tied with three other teams for the fewest in the league. Dropped passes are somewhat subjective—for one example, I would give wide receiver Mohamed Sanu a second drop against the Bucs when he stumbled and couldn't corral a pass slightly behind him. But there is no question that Ryan's targets are much improved with hanging on to the ball.
One big reason for that is Leonard Hankerson is gone after he was among the worst drops offenders in the league last season. Also, free-agent addition Sanu (13 catches) seems to be putting his persistent drops issue with the Bengals behind him and wide receiver Justin Hardy (four catches) has no drops in seven targets after he dropped three of 36 in 2015.
The running backs are more sure-handed, too. Tevin Coleman has 13 receptions with no drops in 15 targets this year after he dropped three of five “catchable” balls in 2015, and Devonta Freeman has no drops in 12 targets after his 8.75 percent drop rate ranked No. 43 among backs with at least 20 targets in 2015.
Fans tend to fixate on Ryan’s perceived weaknesses when they aren’t railing against Kyle Shanahan. Now Falcons supporters who said either one (or both) were the problem are back to praising them. That’s the nature of the NFL: fickle fans want simple explanations for struggles, so the quarterback and the OC take most of the heat when things aren’t going right.
But as a dispassionate observer of the Falcons I’ve said all along that Ryan’s 2015 season was an outlier and that he and Shanahan still could help the offense soar. One reason I believe that is because I saw that Ryan and Shanahan were stymied by wide receivers, tight ends and running backs consistently killing drives with dropped passes.
Certainly Ryan had a fumbling issue early last season and then accuracy problems late, but he still ended up as the ninth-rated QB by Pro Football Focus. Shanahan relied too heavily on the All-Julio offense early last year, which he has rectified in a big way in 2016 , but most of the criticisms of his play-calling (after the fact, of course) are silly and too simplistic.
Both men needed more help from Falcons pass targets and now they are getting it. That’s why I think the zero drops on Sunday is the most important number for the Falcons going forward.
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