PHILADELPHIA--I had the same reaction as many when Braves manager Brian Snitker said he wasn't ready to try a new closer after Jim Johnson blew another save Saturday night. If three blown saves in the last seven and a majors-high eight overall weren't enough reason to make a change, then what is? When Snitker said after Sunday's game that Johnson no longer is the primary closer , it made sense.
But then, once I overcame the recency bias and looked at the big picture, I saw things differently. If Snitker is going to stick with a traditional closer (he shouldn't, but that's another blog altogether) Johnson probably is the best candidate on the roster. In some ways, he compares pretty favorably to some of the top closers in the majors.
Seriously. Hear me out and look at the numbers (all updated through Saturday).
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Johnson's average fastball velocity (94.2) is fine, especially for a sinker (it's ticked back up after dipping for a couple games). His strikeout percentage (27.9) is higher than Arodys Vizcaino (26.3) and Jose Ramirez (23.4) and his walk percentage (8.2) is lower than Ramirez (11.4) and Rex Brothers (9.8). The percentage of balls hit against Johnson categorized as "hard" by Baseball Info Solutions (22.4) is lower than Vizcaino (33.7), Ramirez (32.7) and Brothers (24.0)
Those numbers are big factors in why Johnson's 2.80 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is far superior to Vizcaino's (3.81 FIP), Ramirez's (4.01) and Brothers' (4.65). Johnson's FIP now is similar with his FIP last season (2.71).
Furthermore, Johnson's current batting average against (.236) and OBP allowed (.301) are identical to last season and his OPS allowed (.634) is almost the same as it was in 2016 (.631). Johnson is inducing more ground balls this season than last season but has seen more of his fly balls leave the park.
Why was Johnson 20-for-23 on saves in 2016 and 22-for-30 now even though several of his key metrics are as good or better? Perhaps he's suddenly lost it. Maybe the higher workload in save situations is wearing him down (he’s already had 30 save chances).
Johnson says he's just not making enough quality pitches. But I also think he's had some bad luck on results when he does serve up good pitches.
The other three closer candidates throw harder than Johnson. But he’s better at taking luck out of the equation by limiting home runs, striking out batters and not walking many. That means he's likely to provide better results over the long run. I know it's hard to think that now, with Johnson’s recent bad stretch fresh in the mind, but it’s what the numbers show.
And though it might be hard for Braves backers who are micro-focused on their team to realize, Johnson isn’t so bad when matched up against the other top 10 pitches in saves (through Saturday).
Sources: FanGraphs, Baseball Info Solutions
As you can see, Johnson compares favorably with these other nine closers when it comes to FIP and how much hard contact he allows. Sure, you’d like for him to strike out more batters, walk fewer and throw harder. But the veterans who can do all of that consistently are making more than Johnson’s $5 million salary. (Kimbrel is making $13.25 million and Jansen $10.8 million.)
Johnson isn’t an elite closer but he’s still a good one. Unless he's suddenly lost it, Johnson probably is the best closer option for Snitker. That might be hard to believe with images of Johnson’s recent blown saves still fresh in the mind. But take a step back, look at the overall numbers and it becomes a bit clearer.
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