Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had a career-best season in 2016. He led the league in several statistical measures: passer rating, ESPN’s Total QBR, Football Outsiders passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, and yards per attempt. Ryan was the most accurate passer in the NFL last season, according to the Football Outsiders C%+ metric that adjusts for distance, yards needed for a first down and side of the field and compares completion percentage to what an average QB in that situation.
But there was one category in which Ryan ranked among the league worst. Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, writing for ESPN Insider, notes that Ryan was among the least aggressive QBs in the league in 2016.
That's according to the Air Less Expected (ALEX) Metric, which measures "the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down." Ryan ranked 30th in ALEX for the 2016 season, with only Cody Kessler (Browns), Blaine Gabbert (49ers), Sam Bradford (Vikings) and Jared Goff (Rams) below him.
Honestly, I'm not buying it. Those are three of the worst QBs in the league, one who never takes any chances (Bradford) and Ryan, who was the best QB in 2016. It would be one thing if Ryan’s short passes on third down translated to fewer conversions. But, according to Football Outsiders, Ryan ranked sixth in conversions at 46.4 percent.
One problem with the ALEX metric is that it doesn't adjust for yards needed for a first down. Look at the ALEX splits and you'll see that Ryan ranked fifth on short-distance passes (one or two yards to go), first on medium distance (three to six yards) and 20th on long passes. That suggests Ryan was plenty aggressive throwing beyond the sticks on shorter down-and-distance plays and not so much on the longer conversions, which seems perfectly reasonable for a QB running a high-powered offense for a good team.
ALEX also doesn't account for deficits (a quarterback with a lead might play it safer than one facing a deficit) or field position (playing it safe when needing a field goal often is the best strategy, as Falcons fans know painfully well ). ALEX doesn't account for the strength of a QB's defense, which can be a factor in his aggressiveness. Finally, throwing to the check-down receiver on third down often is the best play, especially when the pass targets are good at gaining yards after the catch.
That last point is one that Kacsmar acknowledges. He notes that Ryan was the third quarterback since 2006 to rank 30th or worse in ALEX but the top six in conversion rate. One reason: the Falcons led the NFL in yards after catch plus, with running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman faring especially well.
Kacsmar writes that Ryan has never ranked in the top 10 in ALEX but that 2016 was his worst finish. I don’t think that means Ryan isn't an aggressive QB. More likely is that he’s a smart QB who picks his spots to take chances, lets his YAC guys do their thing and understands that checking down and punting sometimes can be the best option on a given play.
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